Analysis Index: June 2025 Pre-War Signals vs. February 2026
Created: 2026-02-08 Status: Complete Topic: Comparative analysis of escalation signals and negotiation sincerity patterns between the June 2025 pre-war period and February 2026, focusing on the Iran-Israel-US triangle and Gulf dynamics.
Quick Links
Analysis Components
| Phase | File | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Collection | facts.md | ✓ |
| 1. Collection | timeline.md | ✓ |
| 1. Collection | sources.md | ✓ |
| 2. Hypotheses | hypotheses.md | ✓ |
| 3. Analysis | military-analysis.md | ✓ |
| 3. Analysis | signals-analysis.md | ✓ |
| 3. Analysis | negotiation-analysis.md | ✓ |
| 3. Analysis | political-context.md | ✓ |
| 3. Analysis | historical-parallels.md | ✓ |
| 3. Analysis | iran-us-perspectives.md | ✓ |
| 4. Structured | hypothesis-evaluation.md | ✓ |
| 4. Structured | assumptions-check.md | ✓ |
| 4. Structured | indicators.md | ✓ |
| 5. Red Team | red-team-findings.md | ✓ |
| 6. Assessment | _ASSESSMENT.md | ✓ |
Analysts Deployed
| Agent | Domain | Output |
|---|---|---|
| intelligence-collector | Collection & sourcing | 01-collection/ (3 files, 60+ sources) |
| military-analyst | Force posture, proxy networks, strike options | 03-analysis/military-analysis.md |
| signals-analyst | Diplomatic signaling, format analysis, audience decoding | 03-analysis/signals-analysis.md |
| negotiation-analyst | BATNA/ZOPA analysis, sincerity indicators, spoiler dynamics | 03-analysis/negotiation-analysis.md |
| political-analyst | Domestic politics (US, Israel, Iran), coalition dynamics | 03-analysis/political-context.md |
| historian | Historical precedents, pattern-matching risks, coercive diplomacy success rates | 03-analysis/historical-parallels.md |
| perspective-simulator | Iran and US perspective simulations | 03-analysis/perspectives/iran-us-perspectives.md |
| red-team | Challenge of prevailing assessment, deception analysis, pre-mortem | 05-red-team/red-team-findings.md |
Key Finding
The assessment's central finding — and its central uncertainty — is that the analytical framework used to distinguish coercive diplomacy from strike preparation is itself unreliable in the post-June 2025 deception environment. The prevailing reading favors coercive diplomacy (H2) with Trump-Netanyahu divergence (H3), but the red team demonstrated that this reading may reflect shared analytical assumptions rather than ground truth. Strike probability: 30-35%.
Three Most Diagnostic Indicators to Watch
- USS George H.W. Bush arrival — dual-carrier = offensive posture, not coercion
- February 12 Netanyahu-Trump meeting outcome — coordination vs. lobbying
- Second Oman round scheduling — sustained cadence favors diplomacy; delay favors strike
Update Log
| Date | Update |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Initial analysis complete. 6 phases, 8 specialist agents, 15 files. Red team incorporated with probability adjustments. |