INTELLIGENCE COLLECTION: Iran-Israel-US Triangle -- Pre-War Signals Comparison

Collection Date: 2026-02-08 Collector: intelligence-collector Scope: Period 1 (June 2025 pre-war escalation) vs. Period 2 (February 2026 current dynamics)

CONFIRMED FACTS (A1-B2)

Period 1: June 2025 Pre-War Escalation

Military Posture

On June 13, 2025, the IDF launched five waves of air strikes using 200+ fighter jets, dropping 330+ munitions on approximately 100 targets across Iran. -- Source: Britannica, Wikipedia, multiple wire services (A1)
Israel targeted nuclear facilities (Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, Kalaye Electric), military bases, and key commanders. -- Source: Multiple (A1)
Senior Iranian military leaders killed: IRGC head Hossein Salami, Armed Forces Chief of Staff Mohammed Bagheri, IRGC Air Force commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh, and nuclear scientists. -- Source: Multiple wire services (A1)
Iran retaliated with 550+ ballistic missiles and 1,000+ suicide drones hitting civilian centers, one hospital, and 12+ military/energy/government sites. Most intercepted. -- Source: Multiple (A1)
The US bombed three Iranian nuclear sites (Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan) on June 22, using seven B-2 Spirit stealth bombers on a 37-hour mission from Whiteman AFB, Missouri. -- Source: Multiple (A1)
Iran fired missiles at a US base in Qatar in retaliation for US strikes. -- Source: Multiple wire services (B1)
USS Nimitz was ordered from Indo-Pacific to Middle East during the conflict. -- Source: Military.com, FDD (B2)
US had approximately 40,000 troops stationed in the Middle East as of June 2025. -- Source: Fox News, FDD (B2)
Around 30 US Air Force refueling aircraft (KC-135s, KC-46s) deployed from US to Europe on June 15 to support the bombing mission. -- Source: CNN (B2)

Rhetorical Escalation

IAEA report (May 31, 2025) stated Iran had enough 60%-enriched uranium for nine nuclear weapons. -- Source: IAEA, multiple wire services (A1)
IAEA Board of Governors passed resolution on June 12, 2025, declaring Iran non-compliant with nuclear obligations -- first such declaration since 2005. -- Source: Arms Control Association, IAEA (A1)
Trump set 60-day deadline for Iran via letter to Khamenei, delivered March 7, 2025. Deadline expired June 12/13. -- Source: Axios, Arms Control Association (A1)
Netanyahu presented Trump with four strike options in February 2025: exclusively Israeli, Israeli-led with minimal US help, full collaboration, or US-led assault. -- Source: Times of Israel, Axios (B2)

Proxy Activity

Houthis launched 50+ missiles and drones at Israel between end of Gaza ceasefire (March 2025) and start of Operation Rising Lion (June 2025). -- Source: FDD (B2)
Houthis were the only Iranian proxy to openly attack Israel during the Twelve-Day War. -- Source: FDD (B1)
At least five US bases in Iraq and Syria came under fire from Iran-backed militias after June 13 strikes. -- Source: FDD, Long War Journal (B1)
Three drones launched at Ain al Asad Airbase on June 14; all intercepted. -- Source: Long War Journal (B1)
Three US bases in northeastern Syria attacked by Iraqi militias June 14-15. -- Source: Long War Journal (B1)
Kata'ib Hezbollah warned US not to enter the conflict on June 15. -- Source: Long War Journal (B1)
Unknown actors (likely Iran-backed militias) attacked Iraqi military bases on June 24, damaging radar at Camp Taji and Imam Ali Base. -- Source: Long War Journal (B2)
Hezbollah did NOT join the June 2025 conflict, weakened from prior fighting with Israel. -- Source: Multiple (B1)

Diplomatic Signals

Five rounds of US-Iran talks held April-May 2025: Round 1 (April 12, Oman), Round 2 (April 19, Rome), Round 3 (April 26, Oman), Round 4 (May 11, Oman), Round 5 (May 23, Rome). -- Source: Wikipedia, Arms Control Association (B1)
Iran rejected Trump's deal proposal on June 2/9, 2025, but announced plans for a counteroffer. -- Source: Reuters, multiple (B1)
Sixth round of talks scheduled for June 15 in Oman was indefinitely suspended after Israeli strikes began June 13. -- Source: Multiple (A1)
Key sticking point: Khamenei rejected US demands to halt uranium enrichment, calling it central to Iran's program. -- Source: Multiple wire services (A1)
Ali Shamkhani, Khamenei's political advisor overseeing US negotiations, was injured in Israeli strikes. -- Source: Multiple (B1)
Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman traveled to Tehran in April 2025 to urge diplomatic engagement. -- Source: Arab Center DC, France24 (B2)
Gulf states insisted their airspace would not be used for US military operations against Iran. -- Source: Multiple (B1)
All Gulf states (Saudi, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman) condemned Israeli strikes on Iran's sovereignty. -- Source: Multiple (A1)
Saudi Arabia stopped short of condemning US strikes, issuing a "balanced statement." -- Source: Washington Post (B2)

Negotiation Sincerity Assessment

Netanyahu and Trump began planning the Iran strike at their February 2025 meeting, while simultaneously pursuing the 60-day negotiation track. -- Source: Times of Israel, Axios (B2)
Israeli and US officials deliberately leaked false reports of tensions between Netanyahu and Trump to provide cover for strike planning. -- Source: Times of Israel (B2)
A source stated: "All the reports about Bibi not being on the same page with Witkoff or Trump were not true...it was good that this was the general perception; it helped to move on with the planning without many people noticing it." -- Source: Times of Israel (B2)
The Trump administration made a final secret proposal during the bombing: end proxy support, replace Fordow, in exchange for lifting "all sanctions." Iran was not told this was the final offer before US strikes. -- Source: Israel Hayom (B3)
Strikes began one day after the 60-day deadline expired and three days before the scheduled sixth round of talks. -- Source: Multiple (A1)

Economic Pressure

Iran's currency halved in value between July 2024 and March 2025. -- Source: Euronews, Al Jazeera (B1)
Iran had five consecutive years of 30%+ annual inflation. -- Source: Al Jazeera (B1)
Iran was still exporting 1.38 million bpd of crude oil to China in 2025 despite sanctions. -- Source: Stimson Center (B2)

Ceasefire (June 24, 2025)

Iran halted strikes at midnight ET; Israel halted 12 hours later (noon ET); war declared over at midnight ET Wednesday. -- Source: Multiple (A1)
Both sides violated ceasefire in the initial hours: Iran fired three missiles (7:06 AM and 10:25 AM); Israel struck a radar array near Tehran in response. -- Source: Multiple wire services (A1)
Trump intervened directly with Netanyahu to enforce ceasefire. -- Source: NPR, Washington Post (B1)
No strikes by either side since June 24, 2025. -- Source: Multiple (A1)
Iranian casualties: approximately 1,062 killed (Iranian Health Ministry, as of July 22, 2025). -- Source: Official (A2)
Israeli casualties: 29 killed (as of July 13, 2025). -- Source: Multiple (B1)

Period 2: February 2026 Current Dynamics

Military Posture

USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group deployed to the region on January 26, 2026. -- Source: Multiple (A1)
USS George H.W. Bush expected to arrive in coming months. -- Source: CNN (B2)
Approximately 12 warships in or near the Middle East as of late January 2026. -- Source: CNN, Washington Post (B1)
Additional naval assets: USS McFaul, USS Mitscher (DDG-57) in Strait of Hormuz; USS Delbert D. Black in Red Sea; USS Roosevelt (DDG-80), USS Bulkeley in Mediterranean; LCS Canberra, Tulsa, Santa Barbara in Persian Gulf. -- Source: Al Jazeera, CNN (B1)
F-35C from USS Abraham Lincoln shot down Iranian Shahed-139 drone that "aggressively approached" the carrier in Arabian Sea (~500 miles from Iran) on February 3, 2026. -- Source: Multiple (A1)
Six IRGC Navy gunboats attempted to stop/seize US-flagged tanker Stena Imperative in Strait of Hormuz on February 3, 2026. Tanker increased speed; USS McFaul escorted it. -- Source: Multiple (A1)
Iran denied the incident, claiming the vessel entered Iranian territorial waters. -- Source: Fars News Agency (B3)
Trump has described a "massive armada" of ships and planes ready to attack if negotiations fail. -- Source: Al Jazeera, CNN (A1)
Dozens of aircraft deployed to bases near Iran. -- Source: Washington Post (B2)
Trump considering strike options including airstrikes on Iranian leaders, nuclear sites, government institutions; Special Operations raids; or naval blockade of shadow fleet. -- Source: CNN, WSJ (B2)
Trump's precise military objectives remain unclear even to senior administration officials. -- Source: NBC News (B3)

Iran's Military Rebuilding

Iran began rebuilding missile production sites within months of the June 2025 war; satellite imagery confirms reconstruction. -- Source: AP, Times of Israel (B1)
IRGC began the war with ~480 TELs, ended with ~100. -- Source: Hudson Institute (B2)
Iran has replenished missile stockpile to approximately 2,000 heavy missiles. -- Source: IDF warnings, Iran International (B3)
IRGC importing large quantities of solid-propellant precursors (sodium perchlorate) from China via Bandar Abbas since September 2025. -- Source: CNN, European intelligence sources (B2)
Iran developing unconventional warheads for ballistic missiles. -- Source: Iran International (C3)
IAEA has not found satellite evidence of renewed uranium enrichment, but Iranian activity near struck sites is occurring. -- Source: IAEA, ISIS Reports (B1)
IAEA estimates all uranium enriched to 60% and most other enriched uranium remained at struck sites. -- Source: IAEA (B1)
Iran refuses to allow IAEA inspectors access to sites struck during the war. -- Source: IAEA (A1)
Iran must make decisions on IAEA compliance by the next Board of Governors meeting in Q1 2026. -- Source: ISIS Reports (B2)

Rhetorical Escalation

Israeli army chief Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir warned in late December 2025 that Israel will strike "wherever required, on near and distant fronts alike." -- Source: Multiple (A1)
Netanyahu discussed "round two" strikes on Iran with Trump at Mar-a-Lago in late December 2025. -- Source: Axios (B1)
Trump said if Iran tries to rebuild its nuclear program, the US will destroy it again. -- Source: Multiple (A1)
Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran would give a "harsh" response to any aggression. -- Source: Multiple (A1)
Iran's Defense Council warned it could respond pre-emptively if it detected clear threat signs. -- Source: Iran International (B1)
Khamenei warned on February 2 that a US attack would spark "regional war." -- Source: NPR (A1)

Proxy Activity

No Houthi Red Sea shipping attacks since September 2025 (from 150 incidents in 2024 to 7 in 2025). -- Source: UN Security Council (A1)
Red Sea traffic remains approximately 60% below pre-crisis levels. -- Source: UN, maritime data (B1)
Houthis retain long-range drone and missile capabilities. -- Source: Multiple think tanks (B1)
Houthi-bound shipment of 750 tonnes of weaponry (cruise missiles, anti-ship/anti-aircraft missiles, warheads, drone engines) intercepted three days after June 24 ceasefire. -- Source: CNN (B1)
Lebanon announced completion of Phase 1 disarmament of Hezbollah south of Litani River on January 8, 2026. -- Source: CNN, multiple (A1)
Hezbollah refuses to relinquish arsenal north of the Litani, citing Israeli occupation of Lebanese land. -- Source: Multiple (B1)
Israel states "Hezbollah is rearming faster than it is being disarmed." -- Source: Times of Israel (B2)
Phase 2 plan (Litani to Awali River) to be presented to Lebanese cabinet in February 2026. -- Source: CNN, Foreign Policy (B1)
Hundreds of rockets bound for Hezbollah intercepted by Syrian forces over past months. -- Source: CNN (B2)
Syria's regime collapse (December 8, 2024) severed Iran's land bridge to Hezbollah. -- Source: Multiple (A1)
Iran-backed Iraqi militias have not resumed large-scale attacks on US bases since the ceasefire. -- Source: Critical Threats (B2)

Diplomatic Signals

US-Iran talks resumed February 6, 2026, in Muscat, Oman -- first since the June 2025 war. -- Source: Multiple (A1)
Talks ran from 10am to 6pm, mediated by Omani FM Badr al-Bousaidi. -- Source: Multiple (A1)
US delegation: Witkoff, Kushner, CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper. -- Source: Multiple (A1)
Iranian delegation: FM Araghchi and deputies. -- Source: Multiple (A1)
Witkoff and Kushner met Araghchi face-to-face during the session -- breaking from strictly indirect format. -- Source: Axios (B1)
Inclusion of CENTCOM commander Cooper was unprecedented and controversial; Iranian MP called it a violation of terror law. -- Source: NPR, AA (B1)
US wanted two-track talks: nuclear + broader issues (missiles, proxies). Iran insists only nuclear issue discussed. -- Source: CNN, Araghchi statements (A1)
Araghchi described talks as "a good start" but continuation depends on capital consultations. -- Source: Multiple (A1)
Omani FM described talks as "very serious" with both sides clarifying thinking and identifying areas for progress. -- Source: Multiple (B1)
Second round expected in coming days. -- Source: Axios (B2)
Hours after talks concluded, US announced new sanctions on 14 shadow fleet vessels, 15 entities, 2 individuals. -- Source: State Department, Treasury (A1)
Gulf states (Saudi, Qatar, Oman especially) actively mediating to prevent escalation. -- Source: Multiple (B1)
Saudi Arabia lobbying US administration against strikes on Iran. -- Source: Al Jazeera, CBS (B2)
Qatar maintaining high-level contacts with Iran (emir-president level). -- Source: GlobalSecurity, Al Jazeera (B1)
UAE has diverged from GCC by aligning closer to Israel; relatively silent on mediation. -- Source: Foreign Policy, ISPI (B2)

Iran's Internal Crisis

Massive protests erupted December 28, 2025, across multiple cities -- the largest since 1979 Revolution. -- Source: Multiple (A1)
Sparked by record inflation, food prices (72% increase), currency depreciation. -- Source: Al Jazeera, Euronews (A1)
Started with bazaari in Tehran's Grand Bazaar, spread to university students and nationwide. -- Source: Multiple (A1)
Khamenei ordered live fire on protesters on January 9, 2026. -- Source: Multiple (B1)
As of February 5, 2026: HRANA documented 18,571 total cases including 6,941 confirmed deaths (6,495 protesters), 11,630 under review. -- Source: HRANA (B2)
Regime has reestablished control but faces ongoing legitimacy crisis. -- Source: Chatham House, JHU (B1)
Senior officials delivering "coordinated message" betraying panic, references to "catastrophe" and system survival. -- Source: NCRI (C3)
State media reflects growing internal panic regarding negotiations in Muscat. -- Source: NCRI (C3)

Negotiation Sincerity Assessment (February 2026)

Al Jazeera analysis (Feb 8): "The message was clear: Washington intends to negotiate and squeeze simultaneously." Talks "bought time, not a deal." -- Source: Al Jazeera (B2)
Araghchi: "The mistrust that has developed is a serious challenge facing the negotiations." -- Source: CBS (A1)
New sanctions announced hours after talks is seen as undermining negotiating good faith. -- Source: Multiple (B2)
Military buildup serves as coercive backdrop to talks. CENTCOM commander's presence at table underscores this. -- Source: Multiple (B1)
Iran conditionally agreed to talks partly to buy time amid domestic crisis and military rebuilding. -- Source: CNN, analysis (B3)
Iran signaled talks won't lead to quick resolution. -- Source: Bloomberg (B2)

Economic Pressure (February 2026)

Inflation above 42% nationally; food prices up 72%; health/medical items up 50%. -- Source: Al Jazeera, Euronews (B1)
Iranian rial at record low since December 2025. -- Source: Multiple (A1)
E3 (France, Germany, UK) triggered snapback mechanism on August 28, 2025; UN sanctions reimposed September 27, 2025. -- Source: EU Council, UN (A1)
Reimposed measures include travel bans, asset freezes, economic/financial/transport sector sanctions. -- Source: EU Council (A1)
China and Russia contest legal validity of snapback. -- Source: UN Security Council (A1)
US continuing maximum pressure sanctions, targeting shadow fleet. -- Source: Treasury, State Dept (A1)
Iran still exporting oil via shadow fleet using deceptive shipping practices. -- Source: State Dept (B1)

REPORTED/CLAIMED (B3-C3)

The Israeli strike was planned as early as late 2024 with a "no later than first half of 2025" timeline; first operational plans finalized January 2025 with earliest possible date April 2025. -- Source: Times of Israel reconstruction report (B3)
Trump administration transmitted a final secret proposal to Iran during the bombing, offering to lift all sanctions in exchange for ending proxy support and replacing Fordow. Iran was not told it was a final ultimatum. -- Source: Israel Hayom investigative report (B3)
Iran could produce fissile material for ~10 nuclear weapons within six months despite strike damage. -- Source: Unnamed assessments cited by analysts (C3)
Iran has replenished ballistic missile stockpile to ~2,000 heavy missiles. -- Source: IDF warnings reported by Iran International (C3)
Trump is considering Special Operations raids on nuclear/missile sites. -- Source: CNN citing unnamed sources (C3)
Senior Iranian officials are panicking about regime survival, with coordinated messaging about "catastrophe." -- Source: NCRI (C3, note: opposition-aligned source)
Iran attempting to import Chinese-origin sodium perchlorate for missile propellant via Bandar Abbas since September 2025. -- Source: European intelligence sources via CNN (B3)

UNCONFIRMED/RUMORS (D4-E5)

Reports suggest Iran may be pursuing unconventional warheads for its ballistic missiles. -- Source: Iran International (D4), NOTE: Limited sourcing, no independent verification
Claims that Iran's nuclear "breakout time" is "almost zero." -- Source: Cited in some analyses (D4), NOTE: This refers to pre-June 2025 status; post-strike breakout time is much longer
Reports of internal regime fissures within Iran's ruling elite regarding negotiations. -- Source: NCRI (D4), NOTE: NCRI is an opposition group, potential bias
A "military strike on Iran now 'virtually certain'" according to Western source. -- Source: Iran International citing single unnamed source (D4)

KEY ACTORS IDENTIFIED

Period 1 (June 2025)

Benjamin Netanyahu (Israeli PM): Architect of strike plan; presented four options to Trump in February 2025; conducted deception campaign
Donald Trump (US President): Set 60-day negotiation deadline; authorized US strikes on June 22; enforced ceasefire June 24
Ali Khamenei (Iran Supreme Leader): Rejected enrichment halt; authorized missile retaliation
Masoud Pezeshkian (Iranian President): Political figure, limited decision authority on military matters
Steve Witkoff (US Envoy): Led US negotiating team in all rounds
Abbas Araghchi (Iranian FM): Led Iranian negotiating team
Ali Shamkhani (Khamenei advisor): Oversaw negotiations; injured in strikes
Hossein Salami (IRGC head): Killed in strikes
Mohammed Bagheri (Armed Forces CoS): Killed in strikes
MBS / Mohammed bin Salman (Saudi Crown Prince): Attempted de-escalation; visited Tehran via proxy (Khalid bin Salman)
Ron Dermer (Netanyahu advisor): Key planner of strike
David Barnea (Mossad Director): Involved in strike planning

Period 2 (February 2026)

Trump: Threatens military action while pursuing talks; objectives unclear
Netanyahu: Pushing for "round two" strikes; argues Iran rebuilding capabilities
Khamenei: Ordered crackdown on protesters; warns of "regional war" if attacked
Pezeshkian: Threatened "harsh response" to aggression
Witkoff: Leading US negotiating team again
Jared Kushner: Joined talks, met Araghchi directly -- a new presence in the process
Adm. Brad Cooper (CENTCOM commander): Unprecedented inclusion in diplomatic talks
Araghchi: Leading Iranian delegation; insists talks limited to nuclear issue
Badr al-Bousaidi (Omani FM): Principal mediator
Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir (Israeli Army chief): Threatens further strikes
MBS: Lobbying US against strikes; attempting de-escalation

CRITICAL INFORMATION GAPS

SOURCE SUMMARY

Source Type	# Sources	Quality Assessment
Official (govt statements, IAEA)	15+	High quality; official positions well-documented from all sides
Wire Services (Reuters, AP, AFP)	10+	High reliability for factual reporting; good chronological data
Quality Press (NYT, WSJ, WaPo, CNN, Al Jazeera)	20+	Strong context and analysis; some reliance on unnamed sources
Think Tanks (RAND, CSIS, FDD, Washington Institute, Stimson, Crisis Group)	10+	Strong analytical depth; some ideological lean (FDD hawkish on Iran)
Specialist (Arms Control Association, ISIS Reports, IISS)	5+	Excellent technical detail on nuclear program
Regional Press (Iran International, Times of Israel, Al-Monitor)	10+	Good ground truth; note Iran International is London-based opposition-aligned
Social/OSINT	3-5	Limited use; satellite imagery analysis valuable
Opposition Sources (NCRI)	2-3	Use with caution; potential bias but sometimes early indicators

COLLECTION NOTES

Information Environment Assessment

Deception detected (Period 1): The Netanyahu-Trump deception campaign in April-June 2025 is now confirmed by post-war reporting. Leaks about US-Israel tensions were deliberately planted to mask strike planning while negotiations provided cover. This is a critical finding for assessing current negotiation sincerity.
Dual-use of negotiations: In both periods, negotiations appear to serve multiple purposes simultaneously -- not purely genuine problem-solving and not purely instrumental. In Period 1, the US maintained negotiations as a genuine track while also preparing strikes. In Period 2, both sides appear to use talks to buy time while maintaining maximum pressure positions.
Source bias awareness:
- FDD consistently hawkish on Iran; likely to emphasize threat indicators
- Iran International (London-based, Saudi-funded) opposition-aligned; may overstate regime fragility
- NCRI (MEK-affiliated) has ideological agenda; claims about regime panic should be cross-referenced
- Israeli sources may overstate Iranian reconstitution to justify further strikes
- Iranian state media downplays both protest severity and nuclear damage
Key narrative competition:
- US/Israel narrative: Iran racing to rebuild nuclear/missile capability; must be stopped; negotiations under credible military threat
- Iranian narrative: Defending sovereignty; enrichment is a right; negotiations under coercion cannot succeed; domestic situation is under control
- Gulf narrative: De-escalation imperative; war threatens economic development; diplomacy must be given space
- Analytical consensus: Both periods show a pattern of "negotiate while preparing for the worst" -- the question is which track dominates
Significant parallel pattern: The current February 2026 dynamics share structural similarities with May-June 2025: military buildup + negotiations + deadline pressure + proxy dynamics. However, key differences exist (Iran much weaker, domestic crisis, no enrichment capability, Syria land bridge lost).
Casualty reporting caveat: Iranian government figures (1,062 killed in war) and protest death figures (6,941 per HRANA) are both contested. Government figures likely undercount; HRANA figures may include unverified cases still under review.