SOURCE INVENTORY: Iran-Israel-US Triangle -- Pre-War Signals Comparison
Collection Date: 2026-02-08
OFFICIAL SOURCES (Reliability: A)
Government Statements and Actions
- US State Department: Sanctions to Combat Illicit Traders of Iranian Oil and the Shadow Fleet -- Feb 6, 2026 sanctions announcement
- US Treasury: Increases Pressure on Iran's Sanctions-Evading Shadow Fleet -- Shadow fleet sanctions details
- US Treasury: Escalates Pressure on Iranian Regime for Killing Peaceful Protestors -- Protest-related sanctions
- EU Council: Iran sanctions snapback - Council reimposes restrictive measures -- Sept 27, 2025 snapback
- UN Security Council: Resolution 2812 (2026) -- Houthi Red Sea reporting extension
- UN Security Council: Meeting on Israeli Air Strikes on Iran -- June 2025 emergency session
- IAEA: Monitoring and Verification in Iran -- Ongoing monitoring reports
- IAEA: Iran Verification Report (June 2025) -- Critical pre-war assessment
Official Press Conferences/Readouts
- Trump statements on ceasefire, "massive armada," and strike options (multiple press events)
- Araghchi post-talks statements characterizing Feb 6 talks as "a good start"
- Khamenei speeches: Jan 9 (crackdown order), Feb 2 ("regional war" warning)
- Netanyahu Mar-a-Lago discussions (confirmed by multiple officials)
WIRE SERVICES (Reliability: B)
- [Reuters: Iran preparing to decline US proposal](multiple citations) -- June 2, 2025
- AP: Satellite imagery of Iranian missile site rebuilding
- AFP: Gulf state responses to June 2025 strikes
QUALITY PRESS (Reliability: B-C)
US/International
- Washington Post: Where the US military is positioned near Iran -- Feb 3, 2026
- Washington Post: US sees a new Middle East; Gulf allies fret about unrestrained Israel -- June 28, 2025
- CNN: US military equipment positioned in Middle East -- Jan 30, 2026
- CNN: Iran tries to rearm proxy groups as US talks stall -- July 19, 2025
- CNN: Western intelligence says Iran rearming with China's help -- Oct 29, 2025
- CNN: Iran conditionally agrees to nuclear talks -- Feb 3, 2026
- CNN: Trump confirms more talks; Tehran stands firm on enrichment -- Feb 6, 2026
- NBC News: Trump's objectives in Iran unclear as talks begin -- Feb 2026
- NPR: US holds indirect talks with Iran; military commander present -- Feb 6, 2026
- NPR: After Trump threats, Khamenei warns attack would spark regional war -- Feb 2, 2026
- CBS News: US tanker approached by Iranian gunboats -- Feb 3, 2026
Axios (Breaking News / Scoops)
- Axios: Trump gives Iran 2-month deadline in letter -- March 19, 2025
- Axios: Netanyahu raised possible "round 2" strikes with Trump -- Dec 31, 2025
- Axios: US-Iran nuclear talks back on after Arab leaders lobby White House -- Feb 4, 2026
- Axios: Trump envoys met directly with Iran foreign minister in Oman -- Feb 6, 2026
Al Jazeera
- Al Jazeera: US military moves Navy, Air Force assets to Middle East -- Jan 25, 2026
- Al Jazeera: Gulf countries gear up diplomacy to stave off escalation -- Jan 16, 2026
- Al Jazeera: Iran-US talks in Muscat bought time, not a deal -- Feb 8, 2026
- Al Jazeera: Why is Iran's economy failing, prompting deadly protests -- Jan 16, 2026
- Al Jazeera: Iran could resume enrichment within months: IAEA chief -- June 29, 2025
Times of Israel
- Times of Israel: Netanyahu, Trump planned Iran strike far in advance, ran deception campaign -- Key investigative piece
- Times of Israel: US-Iran nuclear talks conclude in Oman -- Feb 6, 2026
- Times of Israel: Gulf nations quietly applauding Israel -- June 2025
Other Quality Press
- Israel Hayom: The deal that didn't happen - Inside secret US-Iran negotiations during June war -- Dec 17, 2025
- Euronews: Empty tables, sanctions-battered currency - Why Iran's protests are different -- Dec 31, 2025
- Fox News: US sending military assets to Middle East -- Jan 2026
- Bloomberg: Iran Signals US Talks Won't Lead to Quick Resolution -- Feb 6, 2026
THINK TANKS AND SPECIALIST SOURCES (Reliability: B-C)
Strategic Analysis
- RAND: The Israel-Iran Detente Won't Last -- Jan 2026
- Stimson Center: More Spasms of Violence Await the Middle East in 2026 -- 2026
- Soufan Center: Trump Mulls Wide Array of Iran Options -- Feb 2, 2026
- Soufan Center: Diminished Strategic Value of Iran's Axis of Resistance -- Sept 18, 2025
- Chatham House: What Trump Wants from Iran Talks -- Feb 2026
- IISS: Iran nuclear negotiations snap back to the past -- Oct 2025
- EU Institute for Security Studies: Israel and Iran on the brink -- 2025
- INSS: The Second Imposed War -- 2025
- BESA Center: Israel-Iran War: Israel's New Strategic Opening -- 2025
- Geopolitical Monitor: Israel Strike Prospects on Iran in 2026 -- 2026
Regional/Gulf Analysis
- Gulf International Forum: Uncontainable Consequences of War with Iran -- 2025
- Carnegie Endowment: Gulf Countries Want to Stay Out -- July 2025
- Arab Center DC: Israel-Iran Confrontation Tests Saudi Neutrality -- 2025
- Foreign Policy: Saudi Arabia and UAE Have Divergent Strategies -- Jan 29, 2026
- ISPI: Saudi Arabia and UAE - Together on Iran, Divided on Regional Geopolitics -- 2026
Nuclear/Arms Control
- Arms Control Association: United States and Iran Begin Nuclear Talks -- May 2025
- Arms Control Association: Israeli-US Strikes on Iran: A Strategic Blunder -- July 2025
- Arms Control Association: IAEA Passes Resolution on Iran -- Dec 2025
- ISIS Reports: Comprehensive Assessment of Iranian Nuclear Sites Five Months After War -- Nov 2025
- CSIS: What Do Israeli Strikes Mean for Iran's Nuclear Program -- 2025
- Washington Institute: Iran's Nuclear Reconstitution Options -- 2026
- Columbia CGEP: Iran Sanctions After the June 2025 Conflict -- 2025
Security/Military
- FDD: US Boosts Middle East Military Presence -- June 17, 2025
- FDD: Houthis Join Iran's Attacks on Israel -- June 18, 2025
- FDD: Iran-Backed Iraqi Militias Step Up Attacks -- June 18, 2025
- Long War Journal: Iran-backed Shiite militias attack US forces -- June 2025
- Long War Journal: Iran and proxies threaten retaliation amid US buildup -- Jan 2026
- Hudson Institute: Tehran Reloads - Iran's Missile Programs -- 2026
- Washington Institute: Two Carriers in Middle East -- 2026
- Washington Institute: Snapback Sanctions - More Bark Than Bite -- 2025
- Tactics Institute: US massing forces near Iran -- but this isn't June 2025 -- 2026
- Critical Threats: Iran Updates -- Ongoing daily updates
- FPRI: Humiliation and Transformation -- Islamic Republic After 12-Day War -- Oct 2025
REGIONAL/LOCAL PRESS (Reliability: B-C)
- Iran International: Iran warns it may act before attack if it detects threat -- Jan 6, 2026 (NOTE: London-based, Saudi-funded, opposition-aligned)
- Iran International: Military strike virtually certain -- Jan 30, 2026
- Iran International: Iran developing unconventional warheads -- Dec 28, 2025
- Iran International: Next war would not end in 12 days, Guards-linked daily warns -- Dec 25, 2025
- Jerusalem Post: Iran resupplies militia proxies -- 2025
- Jerusalem Post: Iran losing control over Houthis -- 2026
- Al-Monitor: Iranian boats approach US-flagged tanker -- Feb 3, 2026
- Gulf News: Iranian gunboats approach US tanker -- Feb 3, 2026
HUMAN RIGHTS / CIVIL SOCIETY (Reliability: B-C)
- HRANA (Human Rights Activists News Agency) -- Primary source for protest casualty data (US-based; methodical but may include unverified cases)
- Britannica: 2026 Iranian Protests -- Comprehensive encyclopedia entry
- JHU: State of Iranian Regime After Protests -- Academic assessment
LEGISLATIVE/GOVERNMENT RESEARCH (Reliability: A-B)
- UK House of Commons Library: Iran - Impacts of June 2025 Israel and US Strikes -- Comprehensive parliamentary briefing
- UK House of Commons Library: Iran - What Challenges Face the Country in 2026 -- 2026 outlook
- Congressional Research Service: Israel-Iran Conflict, US Strikes, and Ceasefire -- US government analysis
- Congressional Research Service: Iran's Nuclear Program -- Technical assessment
- European Parliament: Recent US-Iran Talks on Nuclear Deal -- EU perspective
- Security Council Report: Iran Monthly Forecasts -- UN context
OPPOSITION/ADVOCACY SOURCES (Reliability: C-D, use with caution)
- NCRI: Iran Regime's Leaders Speak Like Men Expecting the Next Uprising -- NOTE: MEK-affiliated organization; potential bias but sometimes useful early indicator
- NCRI: Medical Students Defy Crackdown -- Same caveat
ENCYCLOPEDIC / REFERENCE (Reliability: B)
- Wikipedia: Iran-Israel War -- Comprehensive with citations (access blocked during collection; used search summaries)
- Wikipedia: 2025 Iran-US Negotiations -- Detailed timeline
- Wikipedia: 2026 US Military Buildup in Middle East -- Current events
- Wikipedia: 2025-2026 Iranian Protests -- Ongoing events
- Wikipedia: Iran-Israel War Ceasefire -- Ceasefire details
- Britannica: Israel-Iran Conflict 2025 -- Reference overview
- Britannica: Iran Nuclear Deal Negotiations 2025 -- Reference overview
ACADEMIC / JOURNAL SOURCES (Reliability: B)
- Wiley/MEPO: The June 2025 Israeli War: Iran's Assessment and Regional Consequences -- Peer-reviewed analysis
- Taylor & Francis: Iran's Proxy War Paradox -- Academic study
- Small Wars Journal/ASU: Fall of Assad's Regime Shakes Iran's Proxy Network -- Academic/practitioner analysis
SOURCE QUALITY NOTES
- Most reliable for factual events: Wire services, IAEA official reports, US/UK government research briefings
- Most reliable for analysis: RAND, Chatham House, IISS, Washington Institute, Carnegie
- Use with ideological awareness: FDD (hawkish on Iran), Iran International (opposition-aligned), NCRI (MEK-affiliated)
- Best for Israeli perspective: Times of Israel, INSS, BESA Center
- Best for Gulf perspective: Carnegie Emissary, Gulf International Forum, Arab Center DC
- Best for Iranian internal dynamics: HRANA (protests data), Critical Threats (daily updates), Al Jazeera features
- Gap areas: Limited access to Russian and Chinese diplomatic perspectives; limited reporting on Israeli-Saudi coordination; limited ground truth from inside Iranian government