Indicators and Warnings
Scenarios Being Monitored
| # | Scenario | Current Probability |
|---|---|---|
| S1 | Extended coercive diplomacy — multiple rounds of talks, incremental progress, military backdrop maintained, no resolution or war within 60 days | 40% |
| S2 | Narrow nuclear deal — enrichment consortium agreement, IAEA access, partial sanctions relief; missiles and proxies deferred | 15% |
| S3 | Second military strike — US/Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear/missile sites, repeating June 2025 pattern | 20% |
| S4 | Frozen conflict — talks drift without resolution, military posture normalizes, low-intensity standoff persists indefinitely | 20% |
| S5 | Wild card: Iranian regime crisis escalation — domestic protests trigger regime transformation or collapse, fundamentally changing the external dynamic | 5% |
Indicator Matrix
| Indicator | Type | S1 (Coercive Talks) | S2 (Deal) | S3 (Strikes) | S4 (Frozen) | S5 (Regime Crisis) | Observable? | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Second Oman round occurs within 7-10 days | Leading | ✓ | ✓ | Yes | Pending | |||
| US sets formal deadline/ultimatum | Leading | ✓ | Yes | Not seen | ||||
| Iran grants IAEA access to struck sites | Leading | ✓ | Yes | Not seen | ||||
| Second carrier (Bush) enters theater | Leading | ✓ | Yes | En route, not in theater | ||||
| Netanyahu-Trump Feb 12 produces joint escalatory statement | Leading | ✓ | Yes | Meeting pending | ||||
| Same-day sanctions repeated after Round 2 | Concurrent | ✓ | Yes | N/A (Round 2 not held) | ||||
| Iran proposes enrichment consortium terms | Leading | ✓ | Partially | Trial balloon reported | ||||
| Proxy attacks resume (Houthis, Iraqi militias) | Leading | ✓ | Yes | Not seen | ||||
| Combat support assets deploy (CSAR, medevac, tankers) | Leading | ✓ | Partially | Not reported | ||||
| Gulf mediation escalates to leader-level summits | Leading | ✓ | ✓ | Yes | Saudi lobbying confirmed | |||
| Talks frequency accelerates (weekly rounds) | Leading | ✓ | Yes | Not seen | ||||
| Iran missile test or provocative exercise | Concurrent | Yes | Not seen since Feb 3 | |||||
| IAEA Board of Governors adverse finding (Q1 2026) | Leading | ✓ | Yes | Meeting pending | ||||
| Iranian protest escalation beyond December levels | Leading | ✓ | Yes | Crackdown in progress | ||||
| Bazaari strike expansion to multiple cities | Leading | ✓ | Partially | December 28 protests were widespread | ||||
| Khamenei health emergency | Leading | ✓ | No | No reports | ||||
| US force drawdown or rotation without replacement | Leading | ✓ | Yes | Not seen | ||||
| Talks paused with no resumption date | Leading | ✓ | ✓ | Yes | Not seen |
Warning Thresholds
Elevated concern (S3 — Strikes) when 3+ of these occur:
- Second carrier enters theater
- Formal deadline imposed
- IAEA Board issues adverse finding
- Netanyahu-Trump meeting produces escalatory joint messaging
- Combat support assets (CSAR, tankers, medevac) deploy forward
- Talks suspended or collapse
- Proxy attacks resume (creating additional casus belli)
High alert (S3 — Strikes likely imminent) when:
- Dual-carrier operations in Arabian Sea/Gulf of Oman
- B-2 bomber deployment from Whiteman AFB detected (tanker pre-positioning in Europe/Diego Garcia)
- US citizens warned to leave Iran-adjacent countries
- Congressional notification of imminent military action
- Israeli reserve callups or air force exercises surge
- Forward ammunition pre-positioning at regional bases
De-escalation signal (S2 — Deal pathway) when 3+ of these occur:
- Iran grants IAEA access to at least one struck site
- Both sides announce a follow-up round within days (sustained cadence)
- US refrains from new sanctions during/immediately after talks
- Iran presents substantive enrichment consortium proposal
- US removes or reduces naval assets from immediate area
- Third-party reports of genuine progress from Gulf mediators
Regime crisis threshold (S5) when:
- Protests resume at December 2025 scale or larger
- Security forces refuse to fire or defections reported
- Major economic shutdown (bazaar closures extending beyond 2 weeks)
- Senior regime figures publicly break with Khamenei
- IRGC factions visibly split on protest response
Collection Priorities
To improve warning capability:
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USS George H.W. Bush tracking: Its arrival timeline is the single most important observable military indicator. Dual-carrier presence significantly elevates strike probability assessment.
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February 12 Netanyahu-Trump meeting readout: The most diagnostic near-term event for distinguishing H1/H3. Monitor: joint statement language, post-meeting military coordination signals, Israeli force posture changes.
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IAEA Q1 2026 Board of Governors: The next potential institutional trigger. Monitor for adverse findings and US/European diplomatic positioning ahead of the meeting.
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Iran's IAEA engagement: Any change in Iran's refusal to grant access to struck sites would be a strong signal of negotiating seriousness. Currently: access refused.
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Proxy network reactivation: Houthi Red Sea operations, Iraqi militia attacks on US bases, Hezbollah rearming indicators. Currently: all quiet, but dormancy is not disarmament.
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Iran's internal stability: Protest activity, security force deployments, bazaari participation, IRGC factional signals. The domestic situation is the wildcard that could override all external dynamics.
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Chinese diplomatic and supply-chain activity: Sodium perchlorate shipments, diplomatic messaging to Iran, position on snapback sanctions, any bilateral security discussions.
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Round 2 scheduling and format: When, where, who attends, and whether the format escalates (e.g., longer multi-day sessions, technical experts included) or regresses (back to purely indirect).