INTELLIGENCE DASHBOARD
Full Assessments
INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT: Ahmad Naghibzadeh's Predictions — One Month Later
Ahmad Naghibzadeh's January 8, 2026 interview demonstrated strong structural analysis but unreliable forecasting. His diagnosis of the Islamic Republic's pathologies — economic extraction by IRGC "mafia networks," the Supreme Leader as irreplaceable "hook," opposition fragmentation, and the impossib
OSINTASSESSMENT: June 2025 Pre-War Signals vs. February 2026 — Escalation and Negotiation Patterns
February 2026 likely represents a shift from the June 2025 covert dual-track (negotiations-as-cover for planned strikes) toward overt coercive diplomacy where military threats are wielded openly as negotiating leverage. However, this assessment carries only medium confidence because a learning adver
OSINTINTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT: CENTCOM Military Buildup — Kinetic Action or Coercive Diplomacy?
The CENTCOM military buildup is most likely a coercive diplomacy campaign designed to extract maximum Iranian concessions at the negotiating table, with genuine preparation for limited strikes if diplomacy fails. The force posture is calibrated for armed compellence with strike optionality — suffici
OSINTAssessment: Iran-U.S. First Round Negotiations (February 6, 2026)
The February 6, 2026, indirect talks in Muscat, Oman -- the first U.S.-Iran diplomatic engagement since the June 2025 Twelve-Day War -- represent a fragile opening driven more by mutual fear of escalation than genuine commitment to a comprehensive deal. Iran enters from its weakest position since 19
OSINTINTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT: Will Israel Attack Iran in the Near Term?
Some form of Israeli or US-Israeli military action against Iran is more likely than not in 2026, but NOT imminent. The probability of a major overt strike is assessed at 35-55% (post-red-team adjustment), with the most likely window being April-July 2026 — after diplomacy has time to demonstrate fai
Flash Traffic
EXECUTIVE BRIEF: Graham's Apparent Shift on Iran Deal
Graham's statement is less of a genuine reversal than it appears. It is best understood as a tactical repositioning to stay aligned with Trump's diplomatic turn, while simultaneously establishing Congress as a gatekeeper that can impose conditions Iran is almost certain to reject. Graham has effecti
OSINTBRIEF: Did Anyone Credibly Predict the June 13, 2025 Strikes on Iran?
No major think tank, OSINT practitioner, or Western intelligence analyst publicly predicted the specific timing of the June 13, 2025 strikes. The US-Israeli deception campaign — involving planted stories of bilateral tensions, fake diplomatic scheduling, and personal misdirection — achieved comprehe
OSINT