Psychological Profiling: Key Decision-Makers

See full analysis in agent output. Key findings summarized in _ASSESSMENT.md

Key Findings

• Trump driven by ego investment in failed deal + Saudi/Israeli lobbying + Soleimani template (bold action without consequences); high risk tolerance for risks to others, low for risks to self
• Trump's "four weeks" is political inoculation against "endless war" label, not operational planning
• Trump's war cabinet is groupthink-prone — no Devil's Advocate figure willing to challenge assumptions
• Netanyahu fuses genuine existential threat belief with political survival calculus; war shields him from elections, corruption cases, October 7 commission
• Iran's Interim Council: forced coalition of rivals under extreme stress. IRGC dominates through Mohseni-Ejei; Pezeshkian has title but not power; Arafi focused on succession
• IRGC split between ideological warriors (maximum retaliation), professional military (Mosaic Defense attrition), and economic actors (protect financial empire)
• Escalation trap: each side's domestic audience demands actions the other side cannot tolerate
• Face-saving off-ramp possible: Trump needs to CLAIM Iran capitulated (doesn't need actual capitulation); Iran needs to claim survival as victory
• Most dangerous period: Days 3-10 when Iran hasn't fully retaliated and IRGC revenge imperative is building