Economic Analysis: War Sustainability and Global Impact

See full analysis in agent output. Key findings summarized in _ASSESSMENT.md

Key Findings

• Strait of Hormuz handles 13-14M bpd (31% of seaborne oil trade) — effectively closed
• Alternative bypass capacity: ~4-5.5M bpd max — leaves 8-10M bpd shortfall
• Most likely oil scenario: $100-130/bbl for 4-6 weeks (Scenario B, 35-40% probability)
• Japan/South Korea most vulnerable (87%/81% fossil fuel import dependency); Europe has shortest fuse (gas storage at 46 bcm vs 77 bcm in 2024)
• Israel 2 notches above junk credit rating (Moody's Baa1); can sustain ~12-18 months more before fiscal crisis
• Iran's economy already devastated (rial down 97%, 41% GDP contraction since 2010) but regime has experience absorbing economic pain
• Gulf states have shortest economic fuse (2-4 weeks) and will drive peace pressure
• US gas prices cushioned at $2.98 but cross $3.50 it becomes midterm issue, $4.00+ is political crisis
• Maximum sanctions already in place — sanctions relief is now more powerful tool than additional sanctions
• Global recession probability exceeds 75% if Hormuz stays closed 3+ months