Military Analysis: Operation Epic Fury / Roaring Lion

See full analysis in agent output. Key findings summarized in _ASSESSMENT.md

Key Findings

• US can sustain high-tempo air campaign for 2-3 weeks before munitions constraints force prioritization
• Iran's missile arsenal depleting at unsustainable rate for intensive ops (2-4 weeks), but sporadic launches from mobile launchers can continue indefinitely
• Cost asymmetry favors Iran: $100K-500K per missile vs $3-28M per interceptor
• Air power alone has NEVER achieved regime change — zero historical cases
• Israel's tanker dependency on US KC-46/KC-135 is its Achilles' heel for Iran strikes
• Israel managing 5 simultaneous fronts (Iran, Lebanon, Gaza, Golan, West Bank) with 150,000 reserves mobilized
• Arrow interceptor inventory (~450 with 35% drawdown) could face exhaustion within weeks under sustained fire
• Strait of Hormuz effectively closed via insurance withdrawal — Iran's most potent asymmetric weapon
• Ground invasion would require 300,000-500,000 troops for initial operations; not ordered, not planned
• Gap between stated objectives (regime change) and available means (air only) is the central strategic contradiction