SIGNALS INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT: Decoding Messages Across Actors

Analyst: Signals Analyst Date: February 10, 2026 Classification: Open-source assessment

I. IRANIAN REGIME SIGNALS -- "Survival at any cost"

Signal Cluster A: Khamenei's Bunker and Absence

What: Khamenei retreated to an underground bunker (reportedly in the Lavizan complex) around January 24. He skipped the annual Air Force commanders meeting on February 8 -- for the first time in 37 years. Son Masoud has taken over day-to-day operations of the Leader's Office.

Intended audiences and messages:

Credibility assessment: The Air Force meeting skip is HIGH confidence -- this was a public, scheduled event with a 37-year history. His absence is the most visible indicator of diminished capacity since he assumed the Supreme Leadership in 1989.

Signal Cluster B: The Massacre as Communication

What: Security forces killed thousands on January 8-9 (3,117 government figure; 6,941 HRANA-verified; up to 36,500 opposition claims). Internet shut down simultaneously.

This is the most unambiguous signal: "We will kill as many people as necessary to maintain power."

The arrest of Reformist Front leaders on February 9 signals the regime is closing the internal safety valve. The reformists were historically the system's pressure release: they gave disillusioned Iranians a reason to participate. Arresting them signals the regime can no longer tolerate even mild internal dissent.

Signal Cluster C: The Uranium Dilution Offer

What: On February 9, Iran's atomic energy chief offered to dilute 60% enriched uranium "if all sanctions are lifted."

This is one of the most complex signals in the entire situation.

What is NOT said: Eslami did not address where the 400+ kg of enriched uranium actually IS. The IAEA has not verified its location since June 10, 2025. Offering to "dilute" uranium whose location is unknown is a meaningless gesture. This is the critical gap that makes the signal partially deceptive.

Signal Cluster D: The Feb 11 Rally Call

From hiding in his bunker, Khamenei called for massive rallies on the 47th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution (February 11). This is the single most important near-term signal to watch. The regime is placing an enormous bet on its mobilization capacity.

II. US SIGNALS -- "The mailed fist inside the velvet glove"

The United States is running a textbook dual-track signaling operation: maximum military threat plus diplomatic engagement.

Signal Cluster A: Military Deployment and Rhetoric

The carrier deployment, Trump's "massive armada" rhetoric, and Witkoff-Kushner carrier visit fuse diplomatic and military messaging. To Iran: "The people you are negotiating with have their hand on the trigger."

Credibility: MEDIUM-HIGH. Carrier groups cost ~$6-7 million per day. But the US has deployed carriers without striking before.

Signal Cluster B: CENTCOM Commander at Oman Talks

Admiral Cooper attending in dress uniform alongside diplomats is unprecedented for nuclear negotiations. This is one of the most precisely calibrated signals in the dataset.

Credibility: VERY HIGH. Sending a four-star combatant commander creates institutional commitment. The military establishment is aligned with the diplomatic strategy.

Signal Cluster C: "Very Good" Talks + More Sanctions

Trump called Oman talks "very good" while signing new sanctions the SAME DAY. Classic compellence signaling: "The pressure only increases while we talk. The only way out is through a deal on our terms."

Signal Cluster D: The Witkoff-Kushner Pairing

Using Trump's son-in-law rather than career diplomats signals: "This is personal for Trump. His family is involved." Validates Naghibzadeh's claim that Trump operates "outside institutional constraints."

III. RUSSIAN SIGNALS -- "Hedging all bets"

Initial Silence, Then Support

Russia's two-week silence is the most important Russian signal. Moscow has an extensive propaganda apparatus that can mobilize within hours. Two weeks of silence means Moscow was making a decision, not that it had no opinion. The silence communicated to Iran: "We are not sure you are going to survive this."

The subsequent support (Il-76 flights, diplomatic backing) came AFTER the regime had crushed protests. Russia backed the winner, not the principle.

The Uranium Storage Offer

Russia wants to be the guarantor of any deal -- Iran's nuclear material on Russian soil gives permanent leverage over both Iran and the US.

Key analytical question: Is Russia's support genuine or is Moscow positioning to sell Iran's interests to the highest bidder? The evidence suggests the latter. Russia is pricing its Iran card, not defending an ally.

IV. REFORMIST SIGNALS -- "We have crossed the Rubicon"

Coordinated Break with the Establishment

Mousavi, Khatami, Karroubi, Rouhani, and the organized Reformist Front collectively declared: the Supreme Leader must go.

This represents the most significant internal political signal in the Islamic Republic's 47-year history. These are former presidents, former prime ministers, and the organized political faction that operated within the system for decades.

Implicit message: "We have done the cost-benefit analysis. Remaining inside the system is now more dangerous than opposing it."

Credibility: VERY HIGH. This is irreversible. The regime's response (arrests) confirms it views this as a genuine threat.

V. ISRAELI SIGNALS -- "The clock is ticking and we set the alarm"

Operation Iron Strike authorized but not executed (36 days). The gap signals Israel does not want to act alone. Netanyahu's "urgent" Feb 12 trip signals anxiety that Trump might accept a narrow deal.

VI. CROSS-ACTOR SIGNAL SYNTHESIS: The Master Pattern

Every major actor is behaving as if the current Iranian regime's days are numbered, but each is trying to control the terms of its end.

• The regime: Bunker hiding, unprecedented repression, desperate nuclear offers, closing the reformist safety valve. A secure regime does not do these things.
• The US: Maximum military pressure to extract maximum concessions. CENTCOM commander at negotiating table = interested in disarming Iran, not managing its concerns.
• Russia: Hedging -- managing the depreciation of an asset, not defending an ally.
• The reformists: Positioning for post-Khamenei transition because they assess it as inevitable.
• Israel: Anxiety about losing control of the Iran endgame, not fear that Iran will survive.

Highest-Confidence Assessments

1. Khamenei's era is ending. Signals from every actor indicate his personal leadership is in its final phase. (HIGH confidence, highly likely)
2. Feb 11-12 is the immediate inflection point. Revolution Anniversary tests mobilization; Netanyahu-Trump meeting determines diplomatic vs. military track. (HIGH confidence in importance)
3. Iran's nuclear offer is a stalling tactic. Cannot deliver uranium it cannot locate for IAEA verification. (MEDIUM-HIGH confidence)
4. Russia will not fight for the Islamic Republic. Moscow's signals are consistent with an actor preparing to sell its position. (HIGH confidence)
5. The reformist break is irreversible but insufficient without IRGC fracturing or external intervention. (HIGH confidence)
6. Naghibzadeh's framework is directionally correct but his timeline may be too compressed. (MEDIUM confidence)

VII. DECEPTION INDICATORS

1. Iran's uranium dilution offer: Classic cheap talk designed to buy time
2. "Strike virtually certain" reporting: May be deliberate leak for pressure, not genuine intelligence
3. Khamenei bunker narrative: Opposition-aligned sources may exaggerate, but Air Force meeting skip corroborates
4. Russia's mediation offer: Contradicted by simultaneous Su-35 deliveries. Mediation is likely the deceptive signal; military support is genuine.