INTELLIGENCE COLLECTION: Assessment of Ahmad Naghibzadeh Predictions (Jan 8, 2026 Euronews Interview)

Collection Date: 2026-02-10 Collector: intelligence-collector Period Covered: January 8, 2026 -- February 10, 2026

NAGHIBZADEH'S KEY PREDICTIONS (for reference)

On January 8, 2026, retired University of Tehran political science professor Ahmad Naghibzadeh told Euronews ("A big storm is coming"):

1. Russia-Iran deal: "The United States will offer concessions to Russia in exchange for Russia's withdrawal from Iran" and Russia will be "largely neutralised" but "will never completely abandon Iran and will later try to re-enter through other channels."
2. Trump and institutions: Trump is "a Donald Trump who does not care about the United Nations, NATO, Congress, or any institutional constraint" who "sends in forces, abducts the president of a country from his own home, and puts him on trial."
3. Iran military strike: "Iran will be attacked once again before Nowruz" (March 20, 2026) to eliminate "remaining elements perceived as threats to Israel" while "accelerating a political transition."
4. Regime collapse: "A storm is coming -- one that will sweep many things away," marking "the end of Safavidism in Iran."
5. Strategic patience impossible: Officials who believe they can "survive the remaining three years of a Trump presidency" through "strategic patience" are engaging in "wishful thinking."
6. Opposition must unite or Iran faces "civil war and turmoil...conditions even blacker than what is seen."
7. Military coup "extremely unlikely" because only sycophants surround the leadership.
8. Rouhani would be killed: "If he steps forward, security forces will kill him within the first week."

CONFIRMED FACTS (A1-B2)

Topic 1: Russia-Iran Relations

• Russia remained largely silent for nearly two weeks during Iran's January 2026 protest crackdown. Russia addressed the issue "very cautiously, in other words, there were very few statements," and only at embassy level. -- Source: Euronews, Jan 15, 2026; Al Jazeera, Jan 15, Reliability: A1

• Russia offered to store Iran's enriched weapons-grade uranium to de-escalate US-Iran tensions. Kremlin spokesman confirmed the offer had been "under discussion for some time." Russia's foreign ministry stated: "Russia once offered to export Iran's enriched uranium reserves to its territory. This initiative is still on the table." -- Source: National Security News, Feb 2026; Algemeiner, Feb 4, Reliability: A1

• Iran rejected Russia's uranium storage offer. Ali Bagheri, foreign policy head at Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated: "Iranian officials have no intention of transferring enriched nuclear materials to any country, and negotiations do not revolve around such matters at all." -- Source: Global Security/PressTV, Feb 2, Reliability: A2

• Iran, China, and Russia signed a trilateral strategic pact on January 29, 2026, covering economic, political, and defense cooperation. Described as a "cornerstone for a new multipolar order." However, the pact does NOT constitute a mutual defense treaty akin to NATO's Article 5. -- Source: Middle East Monitor, Jan 29; multiple corroborating sources, Reliability: A1

• Russian and Belarusian Il-76 transport aircraft conducted repeated flights to Tehran between December 2025 and January 2026, along routes designed to avoid NATO airspace, during the height of protests. -- Source: Foreign Policy, Jan 14, Reliability: B2

• Russia's Shahed drone production line in Russia now operates largely without Iranian involvement. Moscow switched to North Korea as its primary ammunition and short-range ballistic missile supplier. Latest Ukrainian-recovered drones use Chinese engines rather than Iranian ones. -- Source: Washington Institute, Reliability: B2

• Russia began producing 16 Su-35 fighter jets for Iran (of 48 ordered in a EUR 6 billion deal), with deliveries scheduled 2025-2027. First two Su-35SE fighters reportedly handed over Nov 18, 2024, transported disassembled to Tehran. -- Source: Army Recognition, Nov 2025; Iran International, Oct 2025, Reliability: B2

• On Jan 13, 2026, Russia's Foreign Ministry criticized "subversive external interference in Iran's internal political processes" and said US threats of further military strikes against Iran are "categorically unacceptable." -- Source: Carnegie Endowment, Jan 2026, Reliability: A2

• Russia evacuated forces from Qamishli airport in Kurdish-held northeastern Syria in January 2026, leaving only its two Mediterranean bases (Hmeimim and Tartus). Some forces redeployed to Hmeimim, others returned to Russia. Syrian officials interpreted withdrawal as Russia building goodwill with al-Sharaa. -- Source: FDD Long War Journal, Jan 28; Al Jazeera, Jan 28; Meduza, Jan 23, Reliability: A1

• Russia stood back during the June 2025 Iran-Israel 12-Day War and US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Russia was unable to support Tehran militarily given its operations in Ukraine but also unwilling to do so, as direct conflict with the US and Israel would be highly dangerous. -- Source: CNBC, Jan 14; Washington Institute, Reliability: B1

• Iran-Russia foreign ministries signed a cooperation plan for 2026-2028 (signed December 2025 by Araghchi and Lavrov). First such consultations program in history of ties between the two countries. -- Source: Caspian News, Dec 21, 2025, Reliability: A1

• China purchases Iranian crude oil at steep discounts (as low as $14/barrel) but remains "reluctant to deliver any game-changing hardware" and views Iran as "high-risk" for deeper investment. China maintains post-1978 policy against selling arms to sanctioned countries in US confrontation. -- Source: Washington Institute, Reliability: B2

Topic 2: Russia-US Relations and Deals

• Aug 15, 2025: Trump-Putin Anchorage Summit at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska. Main topic: Ukraine. Ended without announcement of an agreement. Trump joined by Sec. State Rubio and envoy Witkoff. -- Source: Wikipedia; White House Gallery; Atlantic Council, Reliability: A1

• Witkoff and Kushner met Putin at the Kremlin on January 22, 2026, for 5+ hours of talks on Ukraine. Witkoff presented 27-point document plus four additional documents. Kremlin said talks were "useful" but territorial issue remains unresolved. Josh Gruenbaum (head of Federal Acquisition Service, adviser on Trump's "Board of Peace") also present. -- Source: NBC News; Euronews, Jan 23; PBS, Reliability: A1

• First trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia talks held in Abu Dhabi following the Moscow meetings. -- Source: NBC News; ABC News, Reliability: A1

• Lavrov claimed (Feb 9, 2026) that Russia accepted the US proposal from the August 2025 Anchorage summit under which Ukraine would surrender Donbass in exchange for a halt to hostilities along the line of contact. But Lavrov complained the US had not fulfilled its part, citing continued/new sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil. Lavrov accused the US of "Bidenism" for maintaining sanctions. -- Source: Newsweek; Antiwar.com, Feb 9, Reliability: B2 (Russian government claim, not independently verified; US side has not confirmed such a deal)

• Trump rejected Putin's call to extend caps on nuclear weapons deployments (Feb 6, 2026), saying he wants negotiators to hammer out a new agreement. -- Source: Al Jazeera, Feb 6, Reliability: A1

• Trump said Putin agreed to a temporary halt in energy attacks on Ukraine during cold weather. Trump: "I personally asked President Putin not to fire on Kyiv and the cities and towns for a week during this extraordinary cold." Terms remained unclear. -- Source: PBS, Reliability: A2

• Zelensky said the US gave Ukraine and Russia a June 2026 deadline to reach a peace deal, with pressure on both sides if unmet. -- Source: Banking News GR, Reliability: B2

• Russia is positioning itself as a mediator between the US and Iran on nuclear issues. Putin reportedly agreed to mediate after being asked by Trump in a phone call. Rubio followed up with Lavrov at a Saudi-hosted meeting. -- Source: Times of Israel; Newsweek, Reliability: B2

• Russia working to de-escalate Iran tensions as Washington demands limits. Kremlin said Russia is "working to de-escalate tensions regarding Iran" as Trump demands nuclear and ballistic missile concessions. -- Source: Washington Times, Feb 2, Reliability: B1

Topic 3: Trump Foreign Policy Actions (Institutional Constraints)

• Jan 3, 2026: US military forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores in Caracas (Operation Absolute Resolve, ~2 AM local). US bombed infrastructure across northern Venezuela to suppress air defenses. Maduro and Flores transported to New York for trial on narcoterrorism charges. Trump justified it as law-enforcement action under "inherent constitutional authority." -- Source: Wikipedia; Defense.gov; CNN, Jan 3; Chatham House, Reliability: A1

• International condemnation of Venezuela operation. UN special rapporteur condemned "the US's illegal aggression against Venezuela." UN experts described it as an "international crime of aggression" and "a grave, manifest and deliberate violation of the most fundamental principles of international law." -- Source: Chatham House; Al Jazeera, Jan 6, Reliability: A1

• Congress attempted but failed to invoke the War Powers Act over Venezuela. Senate advanced a war powers resolution 52-47 (five Republicans broke with Trump: Hawley, Young, Murkowski, Collins, Paul). Final vote was 51-50, blocked by VP Vance's tie-breaking vote. House vote was 215-215, failing to reach a majority. Trump called the War Powers Act "unconstitutional, totally violating Article II of the Constitution." -- Source: NPR, Jan 14; NPR, Jan 22; Al Jazeera, Jan 8, Reliability: A1

• Jan 7, 2026: Trump signed Presidential Memorandum withdrawing the US from 66 international organizations including 31 UN entities and 35 non-UN organizations. Agencies ordered to cease participation and funding. Included IPCC, UNFCCC, and many others. WHO withdrawal taking effect Jan 22, 2026. -- Source: White House; NPR, Jan 7; Al Jazeera, Jan 8, Reliability: A1

• As of Feb 2026, Trump had signed 239 executive orders, 57 memoranda, and 126 proclamations in his second term. 64 executive orders were on foreign policy -- the most of any category. 143 orders were issued in his first 100 days. Analysis: "a governing style that relies heavily on unilateral action." -- Source: Ballotpedia; States United Democracy Center, Reliability: A1

• Trump's "One Voice" executive order asserts maximalist view of presidential foreign affairs authority, repeatedly discussing "the President's foreign policy" and implying Congress has little to no role in foreign affairs. -- Source: Lawfare, Reliability: A1

• Assessment: "Trump is unbound and undeterred by precedent, norm, or law." -- Source: Just Security, Reliability: B2 (expert assessment)

• Feb 6, 2026: Trump signed Executive Order imposing tariffs on countries trading with Iran -- an additional 25% tariff. Simultaneously, State Department sanctioned 15 entities and 14 vessels involved in illegal Iranian oil trade. -- Source: White House; Al Jazeera, Feb 6; Treasury, Reliability: A1

• USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group deployed to Middle East on Jan 26, 2026, with F-35C stealth fighters and F/A-18 Super Hornets. Trump called it a "massive armada" and compared it to Venezuela operation. -- Source: Washington Post, Jan 26; CNN, Jan 30; TIME, Reliability: A1

• Feb 6, 2026: US-Iran indirect nuclear talks held in Muscat, Oman. First talks since June 2025 12-Day War. US team: Witkoff, Kushner, and CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper (in dress uniform -- unprecedented). Iran team led by FM Araghchi. Omani FM al-Bousaidi mediated. Both sides called talks "positive" / "a good start." Follow-on talks agreed. -- Source: NPR, Feb 6; Al Jazeera, Feb 6; CNN, Feb 6; Axios, Feb 6, Reliability: A1

• Trump's objectives toward Iran characterized as "strategic submission" -- not classical regime change but compelling Iran to accept permanent constraints on nuclear ambitions, narrowed regional role, with US prepared to escalate abruptly if red lines crossed. -- Source: Chatham House, Jan 2026, Reliability: B1

• Greenland: Trump continued push for US control. Stated "We need Greenland for national security" in speech to Congress. 85% of Greenlanders oppose US annexation. Denmark rejected negotiations. -- Source: CNN, Jan 19, Reliability: A1

Topic 4: Regional Developments (Iran's Position)

• Iran's economy in deepest crisis in modern history. Rial collapsed to 1.4-1.5 million per USD (from 42,000 historically). Inflation at 42-49% (World Bank projected to reach 60%). Food inflation above 70%. -- Source: Foreign Policy, Jan 9; Iran International, Jan 6, Reliability: A1

• Massive protests erupted across all 31 Iranian provinces starting Dec 28, 2025. Peaked around Jan 7-8, 2026. Government crackdown described by some as Iran's deadliest since 1979. Death toll disputed: some reports cite 30,000-36,500 killed Jan 8-9; HRANA documented ~6,941 confirmed deaths. Internet shutdown imposed. Protests continued into February 2026. -- Source: Wikipedia; Britannica; NPR, Jan 7, Reliability: A1 (occurrence), B3 (death toll)

• Khamenei in hiding since ~Jan 24, 2026. Reportedly moved to fortified underground shelter in Lavizan. Son Masoud Khamenei running day-to-day Leader's Office. Skipped annual Air Force commanders meeting Feb 8 for first time in 37 years. -- Source: Iran International, Jan 24; Gulf News, Feb 8, Reliability: B2

• Iran withdrew from (then partly rejoined) the BRICS "Will for Peace 2026" naval exercise off South Africa (Jan 9-16). South Africa, fearing US retaliation, asked Iran to downgrade to observer. Iran initially agreed, then sent its corvette to sea anyway. -- Source: Newsweek; Daily Maverick, Jan 12, Reliability: B2

• Gulf states actively mediating to prevent US-Iran escalation. Saudi Arabia lobbied US to refrain from striking Iran. Qatar and Oman focused on facilitating diplomatic outreach. Oman hosted the Feb 6 nuclear talks. -- Source: Al Jazeera, Jan 16; CBS News, Reliability: B1

• Saudi-UAE rift emerged publicly starting Dec 29, 2025, over Yemen (UAE-backed separatists vs. Saudi unity preference). -- Source: Foreign Policy, Jan 29; CS Monitor, Jan 14, Reliability: B1

• Iraq announced full withdrawal of US forces from federal territory on Jan 18, 2026. US forces remain at Harir Air Base in Kurdistan Region. Full coalition departure by September 2026. Iran-backed PMF militias refused to disarm. -- Source: CNN, Jan 18; Times of Israel, Reliability: A1

• Iran-backed militias filling void of US withdrawals in Iraq and embedding politically through PMF legislation. -- Source: FPIF; Stimson Center, Reliability: B2

• Hezbollah remains degraded but not destroyed. Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire holding since Nov 27, 2024. Israeli withdrawal deadline extended to Feb 18, 2026. Lebanese Army in south but Israel says disarmament insufficient. Hezbollah continues rearmament with Iranian support. 64,000+ Lebanese displaced. US pressuring Hezbollah to disarm while Iran is in turmoil. -- Source: Al Jazeera, Feb 2; Washington Institute; NPR, Feb 1, Reliability: A1

• Houthi attacks in Red Sea ceased since September 2025 after Gaza peace plan (Oct 10, 2025). Houthis threatened new attacks late Jan 2026 as USS Abraham Lincoln approached. -- Source: Military.com, Jan 26, Reliability: A1

• Feb 3, 2026: IRGC Navy gunboats attempted to seize US tanker in Strait of Hormuz. Failed under USS McFaul escort. US F-35 shot down Iranian drone approaching USS Abraham Lincoln. -- Source: U.S. News, Reliability: B1

• EU unanimously designated IRGC as terrorist organization on Jan 29, 2026. Iran retaliated by designating EU armies as "terrorist groups" on Feb 1. -- Source: CNN, Jan 29; Al Jazeera, Feb 1, Reliability: A1

Topic 5: Assad/Syria Aftermath

• Assad living in Moscow under strict conditions since April 2025. Banned from media/political activity. Near Rublyovka. "Spends much of his time playing online video games" and studying ophthalmology. -- Source: Euronews, Dec 8, 2025; Moscow Times, Dec 15, 2025, Reliability: B1

• Syria's transitional president Ahmad al-Sharaa met Putin on January 28, 2026, discussing Russian military bases (Hmeimim and Tartus) and economic/regional issues. -- Source: Al Jazeera, Jan 28, Reliability: A1

• Russia withdrew from Qamishli airport (NE Syria) in January 2026. Interpreted as goodwill to al-Sharaa. Moscow hopes to secure Hmeimim and Tartus. -- Source: FDD Long War Journal, Jan 28; Meduza, Jan 23, Reliability: A1

• Syria's transitional government launched offensive against SDF on Jan 13, 2026, expanding Jan 17. Ceasefire announced Jan 18 with 14-point agreement: SDF integration, Raqqa/Deir ez-Zor handover. -- Source: Wikipedia; MECOUNCIL, Reliability: A1

• Israel, Syria, and US held discussions in Paris on Jan 6, 2026. Agreed to establish joint communication mechanism. -- Source: Security Council Report, Feb 2026, Reliability: A1

• Iran's land corridor through Iraq to Syria/Lebanon severely disrupted. Assad's fall and new Syrian government hostile to Iran block overland supply. -- Source: Atlantic Council; Washington Institute, Reliability: B1

Iran Domestic Context

• Reformist leaders made unprecedented break with establishment. Mousavi called for democratic transition/referendum. Khatami called for return to republicanism. Karroubi blamed Khamenei. Reformist Front called for Khamenei's resignation. -- Source: Al Jazeera, Feb 3, Reliability: A1

• Rouhani held recorded meeting calling for "major reforms." Faces death threats (hardliner MP: "Rouhani must be hanged"). NOT physically harmed as of Feb 10. -- Source: Al Jazeera, Feb 3, Reliability: A1

• Reformist leaders arrested Feb 9, 2026: Azar Mansouri, Mohsen Aminzadeh, Ebrahim Asgharzadeh, Javad Emam. -- Source: Al Jazeera, Feb 9; NPR, Reliability: A1

• IRGC security forces remained loyal during crackdown. No confirmed defections. -- Source: UK House of Commons, Reliability: B1

• Reuters: Four current Iranian officials warned Khamenei "fear is no longer a deterrent." -- Source: Reuters via Japan Times, Feb 2, Reliability: B2

REPORTED/CLAIMED (B3-C3)

• Russia and China "dialing back support for Iran since last summer's 12-day war with Israel." Iran "nudged" to withdraw from BRICS exercise. -- Source: The Hill, Confidence: C3

• Russia using Iran mediation as leverage on Ukraine. Carnegie: "Moscow could present such an agreement as a concession to Trump in exchange for U.S. flexibility on Ukraine." -- Source: Carnegie Endowment, Confidence: B3

• Russia determined protests peaked; resumed open support for Iran. Kremlin received embassy assessment protests "have died down." -- Source: Carnegie Endowment, Jan 2026, Confidence: B3

• Both Russia and China prefer "limited, transactional relationships" with Iran. -- Source: Washington Institute, Confidence: B2

• Khamenei reportedly has escape plan to flee to Moscow if regime falls. -- Source: Jerusalem Post, Confidence: C3

• Russia's direct military intervention for Iran "not even being considered" in Kremlin. -- Source: CNBC, Jan 14, Confidence: B3

• Iran-Russia relationship "durable not because of trust, but because Iran has nowhere else to go." -- Source: MECOUNCIL, Confidence: B2

UNCONFIRMED/RUMORS (D4-E5)

• 30,000-36,500 protesters killed Jan 8-9. HRANA confirmed ~6,941. Higher figures contested. -- NOTE: D4, internet shutdown prevents verification.

• Il-76 flights to Tehran may have carried riot control/military supplies. Flight activity confirmed, cargo unknown. -- NOTE: D4.

• Khamenei health crisis: Reports of "advanced cognitive impairment." -- NOTE: D4, unverified.

KEY ACTORS IDENTIFIED

Individuals

• Ahmad Naghibzadeh: Retired professor, University of Tehran. Previously accurately predicted Israeli strikes on Iran.
• Donald Trump: US President. Maximum pressure on Iran. Captured Maduro. 239 executive orders. Withdrew from 66 international organizations.
• Vladimir Putin: Russian President. Met Witkoff/Kushner Jan 22. Met al-Sharaa Jan 28. Offered uranium storage. Positioning as mediator.
• Steve Witkoff: Trump's special envoy. Key interlocutor with Putin and at Iran talks.
• Jared Kushner: Trump's son-in-law. Present at Kremlin and Oman talks.
• Abbas Araghchi: Iran's FM. Led Oman talks. Called them "a good start."
• Ali Bagheri: Iran SNSC foreign policy head. Rejected uranium transfer.
• Ahmad al-Sharaa: Syria's transitional president. Met Putin. Launched SDF offensive.
• Sergei Lavrov: Russian FM. Claimed Anchorage deal accepted but US not fulfilling. Accused US of "Bidenism."
• Adm. Brad Cooper: CENTCOM commander. In uniform at Oman talks (unprecedented).
• Ali Khamenei: Supreme Leader, 86. In hiding. Skipped military event. Son Masoud running operations.
• Hassan Rouhani: Ex-president. Called for reforms. Faces death threats but alive.

CRITICAL INFORMATION GAPS

• What exactly was discussed between Putin/Trump/Witkoff regarding Iran? No public readout of "concessions for withdrawal from Iran."
• Is Russia genuinely prepared to distance from Iran for Ukraine concessions? Only analytical inference, no official confirmation.
• What was in the Il-76 flights to Tehran?
• Actual death toll from Jan 8-9 crackdown? 7K to 36K range.
• Precise terms of US-Iran Oman nuclear talks?
• Has there been any direct US-Russia communication about Russia "withdrawing from Iran"? No direct confirmation.
• Iran's nuclear reconstitution status post-Operation Midnight Hammer?
• Will Israel strike Iran again before Nowruz (March 20)? No confirmed plans as of Feb 10.
• Content of the 27-point document Witkoff presented to Putin Jan 22?
• Khamenei's actual health and succession timeline.
• IRGC rank-and-file cohesion.

SOURCE SUMMARY

COLLECTION NOTES

1. Russia-Iran dynamic is the most ambiguous area. Signals go both directions: trilateral pact signed (Jan 29), arms deliveries continue, verbal support for Iran -- BUT also silence during protests, uranium storage offer, mediator positioning, reduced drone dependency on Iran.

2. The "concessions to Russia for withdrawal from Iran" prediction lacks direct evidence. The Carnegie analysis that Russia could leverage Iran mediation for Ukraine flexibility is the closest match -- but it remains analytical inference, not confirmed policy.

3. Trump's institutional behavior matches Naghibzadeh's characterization precisely. Venezuela operation (capturing a head of state), 66 organization withdrawals, 239 executive orders, War Powers Act declared "unconstitutional," "One Voice" doctrine -- all confirm pattern.

4. Iran's regional position at lowest point since 1979. Loss of Syria, degraded Hezbollah, Houthi pause, challenged Iraq corridor, economic collapse, mass protests, EU IRGC terrorist designation.

5. Information operations detected: Russia as peacemaker while arming Iran; Iran projecting strength while in crisis; US signaling both military threat and diplomacy (CENTCOM commander at negotiating table).

6. Death toll information war: Figures range 7K-36K reflecting deliberate regime strategy (internet shutdown) and opposition inflation.