SOURCE INVENTORY: Naghibzadeh Predictions Assessment
Collection Date: 2026-02-10 Updated by: intelligence-collector (comprehensive collection including Russia-Iran, Russia-US, Trump/institutions, regional, Syria topics)
Primary Sources (Direct/Official)
| # | Source | Type | Reliability | URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Euronews - Naghibzadeh Interview | Primary interview | A | Link |
| 2 | US State Department - Shadow Fleet Sanctions | Official government | A | Link |
| 3 | US Treasury - Sanctions for Killing Protesters | Official government | A | Link |
| 4 | US Treasury - Architects of Crackdown (Jan 15) | Official government | A | Link |
| 5 | US Treasury - Iranian Regime Officials (Feb) | Official government | A | Link |
| 6 | White House - Iran Tariffs Fact Sheet | Official government | A | Link |
| 7 | White House - Withdrawal from International Organizations | Official government | A | Link |
| 8 | White House - Trump-Putin Anchorage Photo Gallery | Official government | A | Link |
| 9 | Defense.gov - Trump Announces Maduro Capture | Official government | A | Link |
| 10 | Kremlin.ru - Ushakov on Witkoff Meeting | Russian government | A (stated position) | Link |
| 11 | PressTV - Khamenei Feb 11 statement | Iranian state media | A (stated position) | Link |
| 12 | PressTV - Iran rejects uranium transfer | Iranian state media | A (stated position) | Link |
| 13 | OHCHR - Human Rights Council Resolution | International organization | A | Link |
| 14 | CRS Report - Iran January 2026 | US Congressional Research Service | A | Link |
| 15 | CRS Report - US Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Sites | US Congressional Research Service | A | Link |
Wire Services & Major International Press
| # | Source | Type | Reliability | URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Reuters (via Japan Times) - Officials warn Khamenei | Wire service | B | Link |
| 17 | Al Jazeera - Ex-leaders clash with hardliners | Quality press | B | Link |
| 18 | Al Jazeera - Reformist arrests | Quality press | B | Link |
| 19 | Al Jazeera - US-Iran talks Oman | Quality press | B | Link |
| 20 | Al Jazeera - Trump rejects Putin nuclear caps | Quality press | B | Link |
| 21 | Al Jazeera - Al-Sharaa meets Putin | Quality press | B | Link |
| 22 | Al Jazeera - Gulf countries diplomacy | Quality press | B | Link |
| 23 | Al Jazeera - Russia silent on protests | Quality press | B | Link |
| 24 | Al Jazeera - US shadow fleet sanctions | Quality press | B | Link |
| 25 | Al Jazeera - Iran designates EU armies | Quality press | B | Link |
| 26 | Al Jazeera - Hezbollah ceasefire one year | Quality press | B | Link |
| 27 | Al Jazeera - Venezuela Maduro UN condemnation | Quality press | B | Link |
| 28 | Al Jazeera - Senate Venezuela war powers | Quality press | B | Link |
| 29 | CNN - EU designates IRGC | Quality press | B | Link |
| 30 | CNN - US-Iran talks Oman explainer | Quality press | B | Link |
| 31 | CNN - US military equipment Middle East | Quality press | B | Link |
| 32 | CNN - Venezuela Maduro capture | Quality press | B | Link |
| 33 | CNN - NATO Trump Greenland | Quality press | B | Link |
| 34 | CNN - Iraq US forces withdrawal | Quality press | B | Link |
| 35 | NBC News - Witkoff-Kushner-Putin Kremlin talks | Quality press | B | Link |
| 36 | NBC News - Trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia talks | Quality press | B | Link |
| 37 | NBC News - How US captured Maduro | Quality press | B | Link |
| 38 | NPR - US exits 66 international organizations | Wire/quality | B | Link |
| 39 | NPR - Senate blocks Venezuela war powers | Wire/quality | B | Link |
| 40 | NPR - House blocks Venezuela war powers | Wire/quality | B | Link |
| 41 | NPR - Reformist crackdown | Wire/quality | B | Link |
| 42 | NPR - US-Iran Oman talks | Wire/quality | B | Link |
| 43 | NPR - Hezbollah disarm pressure | Wire/quality | B | Link |
| 44 | PBS - Putin halt energy attacks | Quality press | B | Link |
| 45 | PBS - Witkoff-Kushner-Putin talks | Quality press | B | Link |
| 46 | Washington Post - Aircraft carrier Iran | Quality press | B | Link |
| 47 | Washington Post - Lavrov shoots down Ukraine deal | Quality press | B | Link |
| 48 | CNBC - Ukraine land deals Witkoff | Quality press | B | Link |
| 49 | CNBC - Russia watches Iran collapse | Quality press | B | Link |
| 50 | Axios - Witkoff-Kushner-Putin 4 hours | Quality press | B | Link |
| 51 | Axios - Trump envoys met Iran FM directly | Quality press | B | Link |
| 52 | Euronews - Russia silent on protests | Quality press | B | Link |
| 53 | Euronews - US-Iran Oman talks | Quality press | B | Link |
| 54 | Euronews - Ukraine peace talks Kremlin | Quality press | B | Link |
| 55 | Newsweek - Russia chides Trump "Bidenism" | Quality press | B | Link |
| 56 | Newsweek - Iran pulls out of naval exercise | Quality press | B | Link |
| 57 | Newsweek - Putin agrees to mediate Iran | Quality press | B | Link |
| 58 | TIME - War Powers Senate Trump Venezuela | Quality press | B | Link |
| 59 | TIME - Trump massive armada Iran | Quality press | B | Link |
| 60 | Foreign Policy - Iran rial currency crisis | Quality press | B | Link |
| 61 | Foreign Policy - Russia support fuels Iran repression | Quality press | B | Link |
| 62 | Foreign Policy - Trade deals Russia won't bring peace | Quality press | B | Link |
| 63 | Foreign Policy - Saudi-UAE divergent strategies | Quality press | B | Link |
Human Rights Organizations
| # | Source | Type | Reliability | URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | Amnesty International - Militarized clampdown | Human rights documentation | A | Link |
| 65 | Amnesty International - Internet shutdown | Human rights documentation | A | Link |
| 66 | HRW - Growing Evidence of Massacres | Human rights documentation | A | Link |
| 67 | HRW - Human Rights Spiral | Human rights documentation | A | Link |
| 68 | HRANA - Verified death toll | Human rights documentation | B | Referenced via Al Jazeera, Wikipedia |
Think Tanks & Research Institutions
| # | Source | Type | Reliability | URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | Carnegie Endowment - What Russia Wants from Iran Deal | Think tank | B | Link |
| 70 | Carnegie Endowment - What Russia Will/Won't Do for Iran | Think tank | B | Link |
| 71 | CNAS - Don't Trust Russia to Mediate | Think tank | B | Link |
| 72 | Stimson Center - Russia Mediation Middle East | Think tank | B | Link |
| 73 | Stimson Center - Disarming Iraqi Militias | Think tank | B | Link |
| 74 | Washington Institute - Iran's Failing Eastward Pivot | Think tank | B | Link |
| 75 | Washington Institute - Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire | Think tank | B | Link |
| 76 | Washington Institute - Iran Strategy Eastern Syria | Think tank | B | Link |
| 77 | Chatham House - Trump strategic submission | Think tank | B | Link |
| 78 | Chatham House - What Trump wants from Iran talks | Think tank | B | Link |
| 79 | Chatham House - Venezuela capture analysis | Think tank | B | Link |
| 80 | Chatham House - Venezuela international law | Think tank | B | Link |
| 81 | Atlantic Council - Trump-Putin Alaska no deal | Think tank | B | Link |
| 82 | Atlantic Council - Beyond the Alaska Summit | Think tank | B | Link |
| 83 | Atlantic Council - Syria government turn inward 2026 | Think tank | B | Link |
| 84 | Atlantic Council - MENA 2026 outlook | Think tank | B | Link |
| 85 | CSIS - Operation Midnight Hammer implications | Think tank | B | Link |
| 86 | Soufan Center - Trump Iran Options | Think tank | B | Link |
| 87 | CFR - Iran Test of Trump Strategy | Think tank | B | Link |
| 88 | RAND - Israel-Iran Detente Won't Last | Think tank | B | Link |
| 89 | INSS - Reformists in Iran | Think tank (Israeli) | B | Link |
| 90 | INSS - Russia Returning as Security Actor Syria | Think tank (Israeli) | B | Link |
| 91 | MECOUNCIL - Strategic Transactionalism Iran-Russia | Think tank (Gulf) | B | Link |
| 92 | MECOUNCIL - Syria SDF Integration | Think tank (Gulf) | B | Link |
| 93 | DGAP - Limits of Iran-Russia Partnership | Think tank (German) | B | Link |
| 94 | Critical Threats / AEI - Iran Updates | Think tank | B | Link |
| 95 | FDD - Russian troops evacuating Syria | Think tank (hawkish) | B | Link |
| 96 | PIR Center - Second Trump Admin Russia-US | Think tank (Russian) | C | Link |
| 97 | Lawfare - One Voice and Trump Foreign Affairs | Legal analysis | B | Link |
| 98 | Just Security - Preserving NATO | Legal analysis | B | Link |
UK Parliament Research
| # | Source | Type | Reliability | URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | UK Commons Library - Iran protests response | Government research | A | Link |
| 100 | UK Commons Library - Iran challenges 2026 | Government research | A | Link |
| 101 | UK Commons Library - Syria post-Assad | Government research | A | Link |
| 102 | UK Commons Library - Syria reconstruction | Government research | A | Link |
Iran-Focused / Regional Media
| # | Source | Type | Reliability | URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | Iran International - Various reports | Diaspora media (Saudi-funded) | B-C | Multiple links |
| 104 | Iran International - Rial record low | Diaspora media (Saudi-funded) | B | Link |
| 105 | Iran International - Su-35 deal leaked | Diaspora media (Saudi-funded) | B | Link |
| 106 | IranWire - Rouhani reform push | Diaspora media | B-C | Link |
| 107 | NCRI - Daily briefs | Opposition (MEK-affiliated) | C-D | Link |
| 108 | Caspian News - Iran-Russia cooperation plan | Regional specialist | B | Link |
| 109 | Caspian Post - Russia's silence on Iran | Regional specialist | B-C | Link |
| 110 | Daily Maverick - Iran BRICS naval exercise | Quality regional (SA) | B | Link |
| 111 | Middle East Monitor - Trilateral pact | Quality regional | B | Link |
Russian/Eastern Sources
| # | Source | Type | Reliability | URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 112 | Meduza - Russia forced to give up Syria base | Russian independent media | B | Link |
| 113 | Moscow Times - Assad shunned in Moscow | Russian independent media | B | Link |
| 114 | Moscow Times - Fragmented Russian presence Syria | Russian independent media | B | Link |
| 115 | Pravda - Lavrov on Anchorage deal | Russian state-adjacent | C | Link |
| 116 | Antiwar.com - Lavrov US no longer pursuing deal | News aggregation | C | Link |
| 117 | RFE/RL - EU IRGC designation | Quality press | B | Link |
Military/Defense Specialist
| # | Source | Type | Reliability | URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 118 | Military.com - US forces to Middle East | Military press | B | Link |
| 119 | Military.com - Houthis threaten Red Sea | Military press | B | Link |
| 120 | Long War Journal - Russian troops evacuate Syria | Defense specialist | B | Link |
| 121 | Long War Journal - Iran proxies retaliation threats | Defense specialist | B | Link |
| 122 | Army Recognition - Russia building Su-35 for Iran | Defense specialist | B | Link |
| 123 | CBS News - Pentagon Operation Midnight Hammer | Quality press/defense | B | Link |
| 124 | Fox News - Operation Midnight Hammer timeline | Quality press/defense | B | Link |
| 125 | Air & Space Forces - Operation Midnight Hammer | Defense specialist | A | Link |
Reference / Encyclopedic
| # | Source | Type | Reliability | URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | Wikipedia - Iran-Israel war | Encyclopedic | B | Link |
| 127 | Wikipedia - US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites | Encyclopedic | B | Link |
| 128 | Wikipedia - 2025-2026 Iranian protests | Encyclopedic | B | Link |
| 129 | Wikipedia - 2026 Iran massacres | Encyclopedic | B | Link |
| 130 | Wikipedia - 2026 US intervention Venezuela | Encyclopedic | B | Link |
| 131 | Wikipedia - 2025 Russia-US summit | Encyclopedic | B | Link |
| 132 | Wikipedia - 2025-2026 Iran-US negotiations | Encyclopedic | B | Link |
| 133 | Wikipedia - 2026 NE Syria offensive | Encyclopedic | B | Link |
| 134 | Wikipedia - Proposed handover Assad to Syria | Encyclopedic | B | Link |
| 135 | Britannica - 2026 Iranian Protests | Encyclopedic | B | Link |
| 136 | Britannica - Iran nuclear deal negotiations | Encyclopedic | B | Link |
Other / Market / Policy Data
| # | Source | Type | Reliability | URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 137 | Ballotpedia - Trump executive orders | Policy data | A | Link |
| 138 | Ballotpedia - Trump foreign policy EOs | Policy data | A | Link |
| 139 | States United Democracy Center - Executive Order Report | Policy analysis | B | Link |
| 140 | National Security News - Russia uranium offer | Specialist | B | Link |
| 141 | Algemeiner - Russia uranium proposal | Specialist | B | Link |
| 142 | Washington Times - Russia de-escalate Iran | Quality press | B | Link |
| 143 | Times of Israel - Russia mediates Iran | Quality press | B | Link |
| 144 | The Hill - Iran alliance cracks | Opinion/analysis | C | Link |
| 145 | Security Council Report - Syria Feb 2026 | International organization analysis | A | Link |
| 146 | Global Security - Iran rejects uranium transfer | Aggregation | B | Link |
| 147 | bonbast.com - Live rial rates | Market data | B | Link |
| 148 | Kalshi - Khamenei exit odds | Prediction market | D (speculative) | Link |
Source Reliability Notes
-
Iran International: Saudi-funded diaspora outlet. Generally reliable on factual reporting but has editorial bias toward regime criticism. Death toll reporting should be cross-checked.
-
NCRI/MEK: Known opposition group. Claims should be treated as advocacy-sourced (C-D reliability).
-
PressTV/IRNA: Iranian state media. Reliable for official positions. Heavily biased on protests and framing.
-
Russian official sources (Kremlin.ru, Lavrov statements): Reliable for stated Russian positions. Claims about agreements (e.g., Anchorage deal) are one-sided and not confirmed by other parties.
-
Pravda-affiliated sources: State-adjacent Russian media. Useful for Russian perspective but editorial framing reflects government line.
-
Think tank bias spectrum:
- Hawkish/pro-Israel: FDD, JINSA, Hudson, AEI -- emphasize Iranian threats
- Balanced/centrist: Chatham House, RAND, CSIS, CFR, Brookings, Carnegie -- nuanced analysis
- Russian-oriented: PIR Center -- reflects Russian academic/policy perspective
- Gulf-oriented: MECOUNCIL -- useful for regional perspective
- Israeli security: INSS -- high quality but Israeli-oriented
-
Internet blackout impact: Single most significant constraint on source quality for internal Iranian events.
-
Meduza: Independent Russian media operating from exile. Among the most reliable sources for Russian domestic and foreign policy analysis.