TIMELINE: Israel-Iran Conflict and Escalation Path
Collection Date: 2026-02-07 Collector: intelligence-collector
2024: Direct Confrontation Begins
| Date | Event | Source | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2024 | Israel bombs Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria. 16 killed including Iranian officers and proxy fighters. | Multiple wire services | A1 |
| Apr 13-14, 2024 | Iran retaliates with first-ever direct attack on Israel (Operation True Promise I): 300+ drones and missiles. Most intercepted by Israel and allies. | Multiple | A1 |
| Apr 19, 2024 | Israel conducts limited retaliatory strike on Iran (Isfahan area). | Multiple | A1 |
| Jul 31, 2024 | Israel assassinates Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran via bomb. Major escalation of shadow war. | Multiple | A1 |
| Sep 27, 2024 | Israel assassinates Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and IRGC commander Abbas Nilforoushan in Beirut airstrike. | Multiple | A1 |
| Oct 1, 2024 | Iran launches Operation True Promise II -- ~180 ballistic missiles at Israel. Limited damage. | Multiple | A1 |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Israel strikes Iran, destroying nearly all Russian-supplied S-300 air defense systems and military targets. Over 100 aircraft involved. | Wikipedia, Reuters | A1 |
| Nov 27, 2024 | Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement takes effect. Hezbollah significantly degraded. | Multiple | A1 |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Assad regime collapses in Syria. Assad flees to Russia. Iran loses key pillar of regional influence, supply routes to Hezbollah. | Multiple | A1 |
2025: The 12-Day War and Aftermath
| Date | Event | Source | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2025 | IRGC commanders pressure Khamenei to rescind nuclear weapons fatwa during meeting. | Iran International | C3 |
| Mar 2025 | Khamenei advisor Ali Larijani says Iran would develop nuclear weapons if attacked by US/allies. | Iran International | B2 |
| May 11, 2025 | DIA assesses Iran needs "probably less than one week" to produce weapons-grade HEU. | CRS/Iran Watch | B1 |
| May 2025 | IAEA reports Iran operating 82+ centrifuge cascades. Enriching to 60% U-235. IAEA admits it no longer has continuity of knowledge of Iran's nuclear program. | IAEA GOV/2025/24 | A1 |
| Jun 13, 2025 | Israel launches Operation Rising Lion. 200+ fighter jets, 330+ munitions on ~100 targets. Strikes nuclear facilities, military bases, infrastructure. Kills IRGC CiC Salami, Armed Forces CoS Bagheri, 30+ senior officials, 14-20 nuclear scientists. | Multiple | A1 |
| Jun 13, 2025 | Iran launches Operation True Promise III in retaliation: 550+ ballistic missiles, 1,000+ suicide drones targeting Israel. Hits military, energy, government sites, one hospital. | Multiple | A1 |
| Jun 14-21, 2025 | Continued exchanges of fire. Over 600 killed in Iran, 29 in Israel during entire conflict. | Wikipedia, Britannica | A1 |
| Jun 22, 2025 | US launches Operation Midnight Hammer. Strikes Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear facilities with GBU-57 bunker busters and Tomahawk missiles. | Multiple | A1 |
| Jun 23, 2025 | Iran fires 14 missiles at Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar, targeting US forces. No US casualties reported. Largely symbolic retaliation. | CRS, Al Jazeera | A1 |
| Jun 23, 2025 | Trump announces ceasefire. | ABC News, JTA | A1 |
| Jun 24, 2025 | Ceasefire takes effect ~04:00 GMT. Two 12-hour periods. Mediated by US and Qatar. Initial violations by both sides (16 killed in Iran, 4 in Israel) but ceasefire holds. | Wikipedia, Al Jazeera | A1 |
| Jul 2, 2025 | Iran passes law barring IAEA inspectors from nuclear facilities (except Bushehr). | Arms Control Association | A1 |
| Jul 26, 2025 | Iran conducts first field test of Russian-made S-400 near Isfahan. | Army Recognition, Kyiv Post | B2 |
| Sep 2025 | E3 (UK, France, Germany) triggers snapback of JCPOA sanctions. Russia rejects, China opposes. | EEAS, Arms Control Assoc. | A1 |
| Sep 2025 | IAEA-Iran agreement in principle for inspectors to return. Subsequently cancelled by Iran. | Chatham House, ACA | B1 |
| Oct 2025 | Gaza ceasefire/peace plan takes effect. Houthis halt Red Sea attacks. | Multiple | A1 |
| Oct 2025 | (Reported) Khamenei authorizes compact nuclear warhead design for ballistic missiles (ISPI claim). | Euronews/ISPI | C3 |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Satellite imagery of Fordow shows little new activity. GBU-57 penetration holes filled in. | ISIS Reports | B1 |
| Nov 2025 | Reports emerge that Russia began delivering S-400 Triumf to Iran. | Defense media | B2 |
| Dec 2025 | Israel warns Iran accelerating ballistic missile production. Iran believed to possess ~2,000 missiles. | FDD, Algemeiner | B2 |
| Dec 2025 | Satellite imagery shows Iran repaired ballistic missile sites. Shahroud test facility operational. | NYT via i24NEWS | B1 |
| Dec 24, 2025 | Reports surface about Khamenei authorizing small nuclear warhead development. | Euronews | C3 |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Massive protests erupt across Iran. Sparked by rial crash to 1.42M/$1, food prices, inflation. Spread to 400 cities, 31 provinces. Largest since 1979 Revolution. | Britannica, Wikipedia | A1 |
| Late Dec 2025 | Netanyahu discusses "round two" strikes on Iran with Trump (reported by Axios). | Iran International/Axios | B2 |
2026: Current Escalation Cycle
| Date | Event | Source | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2026 | Israeli Security Cabinet holds 5-hour meeting. Authorizes additional strikes on Iran (Operation Iron Strike). Netanyahu presents Trump discussion results. | Defence Today, Critical Threats | B2 |
| Jan 8, 2026 | FDD reports new construction activity at Iranian nuclear sites showing determination to rebuild. | FDD | B1 |
| Jan 8, 2026 | Lebanon announces completion of first phase of Hezbollah disarmament in south. Netanyahu: progress "far from sufficient." | CNN | B1 |
| Jan 2026 | Israel conducts 50+ airstrikes in Lebanon (double December rate). Highest since Nov 2024 ceasefire. | NRC | B1 |
| Mid-Jan 2026 | Iranian protests largely crushed after regime crackdown. 6,800+ killed. Internet shutdown for 9+ days. | WaPo, Wikipedia | B1 |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Gulf countries intensify diplomacy to prevent US-Iran escalation. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman lobby US. | Al Jazeera | B1 |
| Jan 23, 2026 | RAND publishes analysis: "The Israel-Iran Detente Won't Last." Argues Netanyahu's post-Oct 7 mindset prioritizes preemption over deterrence. | RAND/Foreign Policy | B1 |
| Jan 25-26, 2026 | US deploys USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to Middle East with full complement of destroyers, cruisers, fighter jets. F-15Es relocated to Jordan. | Military.com, WaPo, Al Jazeera | A1 |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Al Jazeera compares US military buildup to June 2025 pre-strike positioning. | Al Jazeera | B2 |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Satellite imagery shows new roof over destroyed Natanz building. | CSIS | B1 |
| Jan 30-Feb 1, 2026 | IDF Chief Zamir makes secret Washington trip on private aircraft. Meets JCS Chairman Caine and CENTCOM chief Cooper. IDF MI chief Binder also visits. Israel pushes for US strikes. | Times of Israel, Israel Hayom | B1 |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Reports emerge: Israel expects US to ultimately strike Iran but cannot determine timing. Israel worries a limited strike could fall short. | Israel Hayom | B2 |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Soufan Center analysis: "Trump Mulls a Wide Array of Iran Options, Including Diplomacy." | Soufan Center | B1 |
| Feb 3, 2026 | WaPo: Iran's killing of protesters reached level "rarely seen." 6,800+ confirmed dead. | Washington Post | A1 |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Al Jazeera: "Some in Israel question its influence over US as Iran war decision nears." | Al Jazeera | B2 |
| Feb 4, 2026 | US-Iran talks revived after Arab leaders lobby Trump administration. | Axios | B1 |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Iran's top general claims ballistic missile upgrades bolster deterrence. | Tasnim (Iranian state) | C3 |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Erdogan says Turkey "doing its best" to prevent US-Iran conflict. Offers mediation. | Anadolu Agency, Al Arabiya | A1 |
| Feb 6, 2026 | US-Iran indirect talks held in Oman. First since June 2025. US: Witkoff, Kushner, Adm. Cooper. Iran: FM Araghchi. Omani FM mediates. Araghchi: "good start." Both agree to follow-on discussions. | CNN, NPR, WaPo, Al Jazeera, ToI | A1 |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Trump signs Executive Order establishing process for 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran. State Dept sanctions 15 entities, 14 vessels. | White House, Bloomberg | A1 |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Iran insists talks focus exclusively on nuclear issue. US demands broader scope (missiles, proxies, protests). | France 24, Al Jazeera | A1 |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Satellite imagery shows Iran at work on missile and nuclear sites. | Spokesman-Review | B1 |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Current date. Next round of talks said planned for "coming days." Military buildup continues. No resolution. | -- | -- |
PATTERN ANALYSIS NOTES
- Escalation-pause-escalation cycle: Each round of conflict has been larger than the previous (Apr 2024 -> Oct 2024 -> Jun 2025 -> ?). The ceasefire is a pause, not resolution.
- Diplomatic window opening: The Oman talks represent the first diplomatic engagement since the war. But the scope disagreement (nuclear-only vs. comprehensive) mirrors past failures.
- Parallel military preparations: Both sides are rebuilding capabilities during the diplomatic pause. Iran rebuilding missiles and air defenses; Israel authorized "Iron Strike" and is coordinating with US.
- Domestic pressures compress timelines: Netanyahu faces October elections. Khamenei faces post-protest vulnerability. Both leaders have incentives for action that may not align with diplomatic timelines.
- US as swing factor: Trump's preference for diplomacy vs. Israeli pressure for strikes is the critical variable. The military buildup serves dual purpose (leverage for talks AND preparation for strikes).