INTELLIGENCE COLLECTION: Will Israel Attack Iran in the Near Term?

Collection Date: 2026-02-07 Collector: intelligence-collector

CONFIRMED FACTS (A1-B2)

1. Israel-Iran Military Dimension

• June 13-24, 2025: Israel and Iran fought a 12-day war ("Operation Rising Lion" / Israel, "Operation True Promise III" / Iran). Israel launched 200+ fighter jets, dropped 330+ munitions on ~100 targets including nuclear facilities, military bases, and infrastructure. Iran retaliated with 550+ ballistic missiles and 1,000+ suicide drones. -- Source: Wikipedia - Iran-Israel War; Britannica | Rating: A1
• Casualties: Over 600 killed in Iran, 29 in Israel during the 12-day war. -- Source: Wikipedia | Rating: B2
• Israeli strikes killed senior IRGC leadership: Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri (armed forces chief of staff), Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami (IRGC commander), Maj. Gen. Gholam Ali Rashid (deputy CiC), Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh (IRGC aerospace chief). In total, 30+ Iranian officials eliminated in 4 days. -- Source: FDD; Al Jazeera | Rating: A1
• At least 14-20 nuclear scientists killed in Israeli strikes, including Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani (former AEOI head). Ali Shamkhani severely injured, lost left leg. -- Source: ISIS Reports; Times of Israel | Rating: B1
• October 2024: Israel struck Iran, destroying nearly all Russian-supplied S-300 air defense systems, establishing air superiority for future operations. -- Source: Wikipedia - October 2024 Israeli strikes on Iran | Rating: A1
• January 5, 2026: Israeli Security Cabinet held 5-hour meeting, authorized additional strikes on Iran under codename "Operation Iron Strike." Netanyahu presented results of Trump discussions. -- Source: Defence Today | Rating: B2
• IDF Chief Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir traveled secretly to Washington (Jan 30 - Feb 1, 2026) aboard private aircraft, met Gen. Dan Caine (US JCS Chairman) and Adm. Brad Cooper (CENTCOM). IDF Military Intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Shlomi Binder also visited Washington same week. -- Source: Times of Israel; Israel Hayom | Rating: B1
• Israel pressing US to strike Iran, but Trump "really does not want to do it" per US official. -- Source: Times of Israel | Rating: B2

2. Iran Nuclear Program

• Pre-strike status (May 2025): Iran operating 36 IR-1 cascades + 46 advanced cascades at Natanz FEP; 6 IR-1 + 7 IR-6 cascades at Fordow; 1,500+ centrifuges at Natanz pilot plant. Enriching to 60% U-235 (90%+ of work toward weapon-grade). -- Source: IAEA GOV/2025/24; ISIS Online | Rating: A1
• June 22, 2025: US struck three nuclear facilities (Operation Midnight Hammer) -- Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan -- with bunker busters (GBU-57 MOPs) and Tomahawk missiles. -- Source: Wikipedia - United States strikes on Iranian nuclear sites; NPR | Rating: A1
• Israel Atomic Energy Commission assessed Fordow "rendered inoperable" and combined strikes set program back "many years." -- Source: CSIS | Rating: B2
• IAEA lost continuity of knowledge since June 13, 2025. Iran passed law on July 2, 2025 barring IAEA inspector access. Only Bushehr power plant remains accessible. -- Source: Arms Control Association; Chatham House | Rating: A1
• Reconstruction activity observed: Satellite imagery (Jan 30, 2026) shows new roof over destroyed Natanz building. Construction at Pickaxe Mountain (deep underground site ~1 mile south of Natanz) has accelerated since June 2025. Construction observed at 50%+ of 24 sites struck by US/Israel. -- Source: FDD; CSIS; Spokesman | Rating: B1
• Pre-strike breakout time: ~1 week for enough HEU for 5 weapons; <2 weeks for 8 weapons (per DIA, May 2025). -- Source: Iran Watch; CRS | Rating: B1
• Post-strike breakout time: Significantly extended due to destruction of enrichment facilities, but exact current estimate unclear due to IAEA access denial. -- Source: IAEA | Rating: C3

3. US-Iran Relations & US Policy

• Feb 6, 2026: US-Iran indirect talks held in Oman (first since June 2025 strikes). Mediated by Omani FM Badr Albusaidi. US delegation: envoy Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, CENTCOM chief Adm. Brad Cooper (in dress uniform). Iran: FM Abbas Araghchi. Format: indirect (Omani go-between). -- Source: CNN; NPR; Washington Post | Rating: A1
• Outcome of Oman talks: Both sides agreed to continue discussions. Araghchi called it "a good start." Follow-on round planned. -- Source: Al Jazeera; Times of Israel | Rating: A1
• Scope disagreement: Iran insists talks focus "exclusively" on nuclear issue. US demands broader agenda: ballistic missiles, proxies, domestic crackdown on protesters. -- Source: France 24 | Rating: A1
• Trump signed Executive Order on Feb 6, 2026 establishing process to impose 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran. State Dept sanctioned 15 entities and 14 vessels in Iranian oil trade. -- Source: White House Fact Sheet; Bloomberg | Rating: A1
• Trump's stated demands: "No nuclear" and "stop killing protesters." -- Source: Al Jazeera | Rating: A1
• Trump prefers diplomacy over military action but has not ruled out strikes and keeps "all options on the table." Administration considering range from broad military campaign to negotiated settlement. No internal consensus on objectives. -- Source: Axios; NBC News | Rating: B2

4. US Military Posture in Region

• USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group arrived Jan 26, 2026 with guided-missile destroyers, cruisers, F/A-18E Super Hornets, EA-18G Growlers, F-35C Lightning IIs. -- Source: Military.com; Washington Post | Rating: A1
• Additional naval assets: USS McFaul and USS Mitscher in Strait of Hormuz; USS Delbert D. Black in Red Sea; USS Roosevelt and USS Bulkeley in Mediterranean; LCS ships in Persian Gulf. -- Source: CNN | Rating: A1
• F-15E Strike Eagles relocated from RAF Lakenheath to Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, Jordan. -- Source: Al Jazeera | Rating: B1

5. US-Israel Coordination

• US and Israel diverge on objectives: Israel wants US to attack Iran and prefers regime change. US/Trump prefers tough negotiations. -- Source: Al Arabiya; TRT World | Rating: B1
• Netanyahu told Witkoff before Oman talks: "Iran proved time after time that its promises cannot be trusted." -- Source: Jewish Insider | Rating: B1
• Israeli security establishment believes US will ultimately strike Iran, but cannot determine timing or nature of such a strike. -- Source: Israel Hayom | Rating: B2
• Israel concerned a "limited" US attack could backfire, bolstering Iran's regime rather than weakening it. -- Source: VINnews | Rating: B2

6. Iran Military Capabilities

• Air defense rebuilding: Russia delivered at least one S-400 Triumf division, deployed near Isfahan. First field test July 26, 2025. Four battalions planned, operational readiness by mid-2026. Domestic Bavar-373 upgraded as primary long-range interceptor. -- Source: Defence Security Asia; Iran International | Rating: B2
• Ballistic missile rebuild: Iran currently possesses ~2,000 ballistic missiles, roughly same as pre-war levels. Started war with ~480 TELs, ended with ~100. Shahroud missile test facility operational again within months. -- Source: Hudson Institute; i24NEWS | Rating: B2
• Missing component: Large mixers for solid-fuel production reportedly still missing. However, European intelligence sources report Iran received 2,000+ tons of sodium perchlorate (key solid-fuel ingredient). -- Source: PBS/AP | Rating: B2
• Russia-Iran arms deal: $6.5B contract for 48 Su-35 fighters (deliveries expected 2026-2028). 20-year strategic partnership signed. -- Source: Algemeiner | Rating: C2

7. Iran Domestic Situation

• Dec 28, 2025 - Jan 2026: Largest protests since 1979 Revolution, spanning 400 cities and 31 provinces. Sparked by rial crash (1.42M to $1 USD), food prices, inflation. -- Source: Britannica - 2026 Iranian Protests; Wikipedia | Rating: A1
• Regime crackdown: 6,800+ people killed (vast majority protesters), described as largest massacres in modern Iranian history. Internet shutdown for 9+ days. 700+ people arrested for alleged Mossad connections. -- Source: Washington Post; Wikipedia - 2026 Iran massacres | Rating: B1
• Protests largely ended by mid-January 2026 after brutal crackdown. Regime judged likely to survive but significantly weakened domestically and regionally. -- Source: PBS | Rating: B2

8. Iran's Proxy Network Status

• Hezbollah: Severely degraded. Lost leadership (Nasrallah killed Sep 2024), supply routes through Syria cut after Assad's fall (Dec 8, 2024). Israel-Lebanon ceasefire since Nov 27, 2024 but Israel conducted 50+ airstrikes in Lebanon in Jan 2026. Hezbollah launched only 1 attack in 14 months since ceasefire despite 11,000+ Israeli violations. -- Source: NRC; Al Jazeera | Rating: B1
• Hamas: Multiple leadership losses (Sinwar, Haniyeh, Deif, Issa, Mohammed Sinwar all killed 2024-2025). Struggling to regroup. Gaza ceasefire/peace plan in effect since Oct 10, 2025. -- Source: AEI | Rating: B1
• Houthis: Halted Red Sea attacks after Gaza peace plan (Oct 2025). Remain intact and threatening resumption. Iranian influence over Houthis reportedly eroding. -- Source: Eurasia Review; Military.com | Rating: B2
• Assad regime fell Dec 8, 2024: Iran lost key pillar of "Shia Crescent," land route to Hezbollah, airports, weapons warehouses, missile/drone manufacturing bases in Syria. Estimated $50B Iranian investment lost. -- Source: Al Jazeera; Soufan Center | Rating: A1

9. Regional Context

• Gulf States: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman lobbying against US strikes on Iran, preferring diplomatic resolution. UAE position more ambiguous -- closer to Israel, higher risk threshold. Saudi-UAE rivalry intensifying (Yemen, Somalia, Sudan divergences). -- Source: Al Jazeera; Middle East Eye | Rating: B1
• Turkey: Erdogan offered to mediate between US and Iran. Opposes military intervention. Concerned about refugee flows and regional instability. Turkey gained influence from Assad's fall. -- Source: Anadolu Agency; Al-Monitor | Rating: A1
• European/UN: E3 (UK, France, Germany) triggered snapback of JCPOA sanctions in Sep 2025. Russia does not recognize restored sanctions. China opposes sanctions. EU calls for diplomatic solution. -- Source: EEAS; Arms Control Association | Rating: A1

10. Israeli Domestic Politics

• 2026 elections: Scheduled by Oct 27, 2026. Government auto-dissolves if budget not passed by March 31. -- Source: Wikipedia | Rating: A1
• Netanyahu faces multiple domestic pressures: Oct 7 accountability, hostage negotiations, ultra-Orthodox conscription crisis, coalition fragility. Polls consistently predict his defeat. -- Source: Chatham House; Arab Center DC | Rating: B1
• Netanyahu has staked political fortunes on security, particularly from Iran. -- Source: RAND/Foreign Policy | Rating: B1

REPORTED/CLAIMED (B3-C3)

• Khamenei reportedly authorized compact nuclear warhead design for ballistic missiles (Oct 2025), but NOT increased enrichment beyond 60%. Source: ISPI Italian think tank citing internal sources. -- Source: Euronews | Confidence: C3 (single source, unverified)
• IRGC commanders pressured Khamenei in Feb 2025 to rescind nuclear weapons fatwa. Ali Larijani (Khamenei advisor) said in March 2025 Iran would develop nuclear weapons if attacked by US/allies. -- Source: Iran International | Confidence: C3
• US National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard stated: "Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003." -- Source: [Congressional testimony] | Confidence: B2 (official statement, but intelligence assessments can lag)
• Iran received shipments of 2,000+ tons of sodium perchlorate (solid-fuel propellant ingredient) per European intelligence sources. -- Source: [CNN citing European intelligence] | Confidence: C3
• Iranian officials told Telegraph that Tehran's influence over Houthis has "eroded sharply." -- Source: [The Telegraph] | Confidence: C3
• Netanyahu discussed "round two" strikes on Iran with Trump in late December 2025. -- Source: Axios | Confidence: B2
• Israel believes Iran possesses ~2,000 ballistic missiles, roughly same as pre-war. -- Source: FDD/Israeli intelligence assessment | Confidence: B3
• Iran building nuclear facilities deeper underground at Pickaxe Mountain, with accelerated construction since June 2025. -- Source: Satellite imagery analysis | Confidence: B2

UNCONFIRMED/RUMORS (D4-E5)

• Four S-400 battalions planned for delivery to Iran with operational readiness by mid-2026. -- Source: Iranian sources via defense media | Confidence: D4 | NOTE: Iran has history of exaggerating military capabilities
• Iran's air defense capabilities increased "fivefold" per Iranian military commander. -- Source: Tehran Times | Confidence: D4 | NOTE: Self-reported by Iran, experts dispute credibility
• $6.5B Su-35 deal with Russia for 48 aircraft. -- Source: Leaked documents per Algemeiner | Confidence: C4 | NOTE: Based on leaked documents; delivery timeline uncertain under sanctions
• Iran funneled ~$1 billion to Hezbollah in 2025 per US officials. -- Source: US officials (unnamed) | Confidence: C3

KEY ACTORS IDENTIFIED

Israel

• Benjamin Netanyahu - Prime Minister. Authorized Operation Iron Strike (Jan 5, 2026). Pushing for US strikes on Iran. Facing October 2026 elections with poor polling. Has staked political survival on Iran security posture.
• Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir - IDF Chief of Staff. Secret Washington visit Jan 30-Feb 1. Pressing US for strike on Iran.
• Maj. Gen. Shlomi Binder - IDF Military Intelligence Director. Also visited Washington same week as Zamir.

Iran

• Ayatollah Ali Khamenei - Supreme Leader. Ordered crackdown on protesters. Under pressure from IRGC to revise nuclear fatwa. Agreed to talks in Oman.
• Abbas Araghchi - Foreign Minister. Led Iran's side at Oman talks. Called them "a good start."
• IRGC leadership - Decimated by June 2025 strikes. Rebuilt with new commanders. Pressuring Khamenei on nuclear weapons.

United States

• Donald Trump - President. Prefers deal over war but maintains military pressure. Signed Iran tariff EO on Feb 6. Objectives described as unclear by own officials.
• Steve Witkoff - Special envoy for Iran. Led US delegation at Oman talks.
• Jared Kushner - Senior advisor. Present at Oman talks.
• Marco Rubio - Secretary of State. Demanding comprehensive talks (nukes + missiles + proxies + protests).
• Adm. Brad Cooper - CENTCOM Commander. Present at Oman talks in dress uniform (signal). Coordinating with IDF.
• Tulsi Gabbard - DNI. Stated Iran "not building" nuclear weapon.

Regional

• Erdogan - Turkey. Offering mediation, opposing military action.
• Gulf leaders - Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman actively lobbying against strikes. UAE more ambiguous.
• Badr Albusaidi - Oman FM. Mediating US-Iran talks.

CRITICAL INFORMATION GAPS

• Exact current state of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile post-strikes -- IAEA has no access since June 2025
• Whether Iran has diverted nuclear material to undeclared sites during IAEA blackout
• True status of Khamenei's nuclear weapons decision -- conflicting reports on fatwa revision
• Actual operational status of S-400 systems delivered to Iran -- Iranian claims vs. reality
• Internal US administration decision-making -- no consensus on objectives; range from regime change to negotiated settlement
• Whether Israel would strike unilaterally without US coordination or approval
• Timeline for Iranian nuclear reconstitution -- when enrichment capabilities could be restored
• China and Russia willingness to enforce or circumvent reimposed sanctions
• True state of IRGC reconstitution after leadership decapitation
• Status of Iran's weaponization research -- compact warhead claims unverified
• Whether follow-on Oman talks will materialize and on what scope
• Netanyahu's actual redline timeline for action before October elections

SOURCE SUMMARY

COLLECTION NOTES

Information Environment Assessment

1. High-salience, well-covered topic: Extensive reporting from multiple independent sources across all categories. Core facts well-established.
2. Significant intelligence blind spot: IAEA exclusion from Iran since June 2025 creates a critical gap in nuclear program monitoring. Any assessments of current nuclear status rely on satellite imagery and intelligence estimates rather than ground-truth verification.
3. Competing narratives detected:
   • Israel frames situation as closing window requiring urgent action
   • Trump administration sends mixed signals (military buildup + diplomatic overtures simultaneously)
   • Iran projects strength (missile rebuilding, air defense claims) while engaging in talks from weakness
   • Gulf states frame diplomatic resolution as preferable
4. Potential information operations:
   • Iranian claims of "fivefold" air defense improvement likely inflated for deterrence
   • Israeli leaks about IDF chief's secret Washington visit may be deliberate signaling
   • Trump's signing of tariff EO same day as Oman talks is classic dual-track pressure
5. Source bias notes:
   • FDD analysis tends hawkish on Iran
   • Iran International funded by Saudi interests
   • Tehran Times is state media
   • Israeli media reflects government perspective on security matters
6. Key uncertainty: The fundamental question -- will diplomacy or military action prevail -- remains genuinely undecided within the US administration itself, making prediction exceptionally difficult.