Indicators & Warnings Framework
CRITICAL INDICATORS — Shift to Kinetic Action (72-96 hours)
| # | Indicator | Current Status | Assessment |
|---|
| 1 | Diplomatic talks suspended/collapse | NOT TRIGGERED — Talks agreed to continue | Green |
| 2 | B-2 deployment confirmed at Diego Garcia | UNCERTAIN — Satellite imagery inconclusive | Yellow |
| 3 | US embassy drawdown orders in region | NOT TRIGGERED — "Leave Iran" advisory issued (Iran only) | Yellow |
| 4 | Second CSG in CENTCOM AOR | UNCERTAIN — Carl Vinson ordered but arrival unconfirmed | Yellow |
| 5 | EMCON imposed on strike group | UNKNOWN — Not observable in OSINT | Gray |
HIGH-PRIORITY INDICATORS — Preparation Accelerating (1-2 weeks)
| # | Indicator | Current Status | Assessment |
|---|
| 6 | Additional tanker aircraft deploying | KC-135Ts confirmed for F-15E support only | Yellow |
| 7 | CSAR assets forward-deployed | NOT OBSERVED | Green |
| 8 | F-22 deployment to theater | NOT OBSERVED | Green |
| 9 | Ammunition resupply ships arriving | NOT OBSERVED | Green |
| 10 | ISR tempo increase over Iran | NOT OBSERVABLE in OSINT | Gray |
| 11 | State Dept advisory expanded beyond Iran | NOT TRIGGERED | Green |
DIPLOMATIC TRACK INDICATORS
| # | Indicator | Current Status | Assessment |
|---|
| 12 | Follow-on talks scheduled | Agreed to continue; no date set | Yellow |
| 13 | Trump rhetoric shifts to ultimatum-only | Currently mixed — "very good talks" | Green |
| 14 | Iran IAEA cooperation gesture | NOT OBSERVED | Yellow |
| 15 | New kinetic incident with casualties | NOT TRIGGERED — Feb 3 incidents were non-lethal | Yellow |
| 16 | Gulf states reverse basing refusal | NOT TRIGGERED | Green |
ESCALATION SPIRAL INDICATORS
| # | Indicator | Current Status | Assessment |
|---|
| 17 | Tit-for-tat pattern developing | POSSIBLE — Feb 3 drone/tanker, Feb 5 tanker seizures | Orange |
| 18 | US casualties from Iranian action | NOT TRIGGERED | Green |
| 19 | Israeli military mobilization | NOT OBSERVED | Green |
| 20 | IRGC proxy attack on US forces | THREATENED but NOT EXECUTED | Yellow |
SUMMARY ASSESSMENT
Overall Threat Level: ELEVATED (Yellow-Orange)
3 of 20 indicators are in Yellow-Orange territory. Zero critical (Red) indicators have been triggered. The most concerning trend is indicator #17 — the developing tit-for-tat pattern of maritime incidents that could spiral beyond diplomatic control.
Decision window estimate: If diplomacy is the primary track, the next 2-3 weeks are the critical period for a follow-on talks date. If no date is set by late February, the assessment shifts from coercive diplomacy toward strike preparation.