INTELLIGENCE COLLECTION: US CENTCOM Military Buildup in the Middle East (January-February 2026)

Collection Date: 2026-02-07 Collector: intelligence-collector

CONFIRMED FACTS (A1-B2)

Force Deployments -- Naval

• USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) Carrier Strike Group redirected from Indo-Pacific to CENTCOM AOR; arrived January 26, 2026. Currently operating in the Arabian Sea, approximately 500 miles from Iran's southern coast. -- Source: USNI News (A1), CNN (B1), CENTCOM (A1)
• CSG Composition: USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72), Carrier Air Wing 9 (CVW-9), Destroyer Squadron 21 (DESRON 21) with USS Frank E. Petersen Jr. (DDG-121), USS Spruance (DDG-111), USS Michael Murphy (DDG-112). No Ticonderoga-class cruiser; DDG-121 serves as Air and Missile Defence Commander. -- Source: USNI News (A1), Army Recognition (B2)
• Air Wing Composition: CVW-9 includes F-35C Lightning II, F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, EA-18G Growlers, E-2D Hawkeyes, CMV-22B Ospreys, MH-60R/S Sea Hawks -- approximately 65 aircraft total. -- Source: USNI News (A1), Al Jazeera (B1)
• A fast-attack submarine is likely operating with the strike group (identity undisclosed per OPSEC). -- Source: USNI News (B2)
• Additional naval vessels in region: USS McFaul and USS Mitscher (DDG-57) in Strait of Hormuz; USS Delbert D. Black in Red Sea; USS Roosevelt (DDG-80) and USS Bulkeley in Mediterranean; USS Canberra (LCS-30), USS Tulsa (LCS-16), USS Santa Barbara (LCS-32) in Persian Gulf. -- Source: CNN (B1), USNI News (A1)
• Pentagon directed additional ballistic missile defense destroyers to the region. -- Source: Pentagon statement (A1)

Force Deployments -- Air

• 12 F-15E Strike Eagles from 494th Fighter Squadron, 48th Fighter Wing, RAF Lakenheath deployed to Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, Jordan on January 17-18, 2026. Supported by KC-135T Stratotankers and C-17A Globemaster IIIs. -- Source: The Aviationist (B1), Air and Space Forces Magazine (B1)
• B-52 long-range strike bombers deployed to the Middle East region from RAF Fairford, UK, conducting overflights of six US-aligned countries with regional fighter escort. -- Source: Air and Space Forces Magazine (B1), Times of Israel (B2)
• Additional fighter squadrons and tanker aircraft ordered deployed by Secretary of Defense. -- Source: Pentagon spokesman statement (A1)
• B-2 Spirit stealth bombers at Diego Garcia: Six were deployed during earlier 2025 operations (representing ~30% of USAF stealth bomber fleet). Satellite imagery from January 17-26, 2026 showed reduced presence, but their availability from Diego Garcia remains a factor. -- Source: The War Zone (B2), satellite imagery analysis (B2)

Force Deployments -- Missile Defense

• Additional THAAD battery and Patriot PAC-3 air defense systems deployed to locations including Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. -- Source: Army Recognition (B1), Anadolu Agency (B2), Real Clear Defense (B2)
• THAAD intercepts ballistic missiles at altitudes exceeding 150 km and ranges up to 200 km; Patriot covers shorter-range/lower-altitude threats. Together they provide layered missile defense. -- Source: Army Recognition (B1)
• The US military has only a limited number of operational THAAD batteries worldwide; deployment requires extensive personnel and logistical support. -- Source: Defence-Industry.eu (B2)

Official US Statements

• President Trump (January 28): Told Iran to agree to demands or face attack "with speed and violence." Described deployments as a "massive Armada." Stated two demands: "Number one, no nuclear. And number two, stop killing protesters." Warned another US attack would be "far worse" than June 2025 strikes. -- Source: Multiple wire services (A1)
• President Trump (February 6, post-Oman talks): Said the US had "very good talks" on Iran and that the Iranians want to make a deal "very badly." -- Source: CNN (B1), Times of Israel (B1)
• SecDef Pete Hegseth: "Iran will not have nuclear weapons capability. And so they can either negotiate on that front, or we have other options." Said the Pentagon is "more than prepared" but stressed military action is not preferred. -- Source: Al Arabiya (B1), American Military News (B2)
• Pentagon Spokesman Sean Parnell: "We maintain capability across the Middle East so that the President and the Secretary of Defense have a range of military options available to defend both our citizens, our troops, our forces in the region." Also directed Harry S. Truman CSG (before its departure) to remain in CENTCOM AOR; announced Carl Vinson CSG would arrive following Indo-Pacific exercises. -- Source: Pentagon/war.gov (A1)
• White House Fact Sheet (February 6): Executive Order signed establishing a process to impose tariffs on countries acquiring goods/services from Iran (25% example rate). Reaffirmed national emergency re Iran. -- Source: White House (A1)
• State Department (February 6-7): Sanctioned 15 entities, 14 vessels, and 2 individuals involved in illegal Iranian oil trade ("shadow fleet"). -- Source: State Department (A1), Al Jazeera (B1)

Incidents (Confirmed)

• February 3, 2026 -- Drone shootdown: A Marine F-35C from USS Abraham Lincoln shot down an Iranian Shahed-139 drone that "aggressively approached" the carrier in the Arabian Sea (~500 miles from Iran). CENTCOM confirmed the drone was shot in self-defense after it "continued to fly toward the ship despite de-escalatory measures." No US casualties or equipment damage. -- Source: CENTCOM (A1), multiple wire services (A1)
• February 3, 2026 -- Tanker harassment: Six IRGC Navy gunboats and a Mohajer drone attempted to stop and seize the US-flagged tanker M/V Stena Imperative in the Strait of Hormuz, approximately 16 nm north of Oman. USS McFaul escorted the tanker to safety with defensive air support. Iran claimed the vessel entered Iranian waters without permits. -- Source: CBS News (B1), CENTCOM (A1), Euronews (B1)
• February 5, 2026 -- Tanker seizures: IRGC Navy seized two foreign oil tankers near Farsi Island, transferred to Bushehr port. Claimed to carry ~1 million liters of smuggled fuel. 15 crew members detained. Nationalities/flags undisclosed. -- Source: ABC News (B1), Al-Monitor (B1)

Diplomatic Track

• Oman talks (February 6, 2026): US-Iran indirect nuclear talks held in Muscat, mediated by Oman. Iranian delegation led by FM Abbas Araghchi; US delegation led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, with CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper in attendance (first time a senior US military official joined Iran talks in Trump's second term). Talks focused solely on the nuclear issue per Iran's insistence. Both sides agreed to continue discussions; date and format TBD through Omani mediation. -- Source: NPR (B1), Al Jazeera (B1), Axios (B1), Times of Israel (B1)
• Witkoff-Kushner reportedly met directly with Araghchi during the Oman talks (despite the officially "indirect" format). -- Source: Axios (B2)
• Talks were briefly cancelled (early February) after Tehran rejected US conditions on location (Istanbul) and format, requesting Oman venue and bilateral-only attendees. Revived after at least nine Arab leaders lobbied the White House not to walk away. -- Source: Axios (B1), i24NEWS (B2)
• Witkoff met with PM Netanyahu and Israeli defense officials in Israel on Tuesday before the Oman talks to coordinate positions. Then traveled to Qatar for consultations before Oman. -- Source: Times of Israel (B1), Axios (B1)
• US State Department issued advisory: "Leave Iran now" -- issued ahead of Oman talks. -- Source: CNBC (B1)
• Araghchi assessment: Described talks as "a positive and good start" but noted "very deep distrust" as "a very big challenge to the negotiations." -- Source: Al Jazeera (B1), Euronews (B1)

Regional Context -- Iran

• June 2025 strikes (Operation Midnight Hammer): On June 22, 2025, the US struck three Iranian nuclear facilities (Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan) using 7 B-2 Spirit bombers, at least one submarine (USS Georgia), and 125+ total aircraft, deploying 75 precision weapons including 14 GBU-57 MOPs over 25 minutes. 4,000 military personnel involved. -- Source: Wikipedia/multiple (A1), Arms Control Association (B1), CRS (A1)
• Damage assessment: Israel AEC assessed strikes set back nuclear weapons capability "by many years"; Pentagon estimated "one to two years"; IAEA Director Grossi assessed enrichment could resume in "a matter of months." -- Source: CFR (B1), Arms Control Association (B1)
• Iran nuclear rebuilding (as of early 2026): Limited progress on nuclear site repairs; constructed roofs over two facilities to obscure satellite observation. However, ballistic missile program largely rebuilt since June 2025. New construction observed at Taleghan 2 site. Iran likely rebuilding facilities deeper underground. -- Source: FDD (B2), NYT analysis of satellite imagery (B1), Jerusalem Post (B2), Washington Institute (B2)
• Iranian protests (Dec 2025-Jan 2026): Began in Tehran on December 28, 2025, driven by economic freefall and rial devaluation after June 2025 conflict. Crackdown killed at least 3,428 protesters (Iran Human Rights Organisation figure); 10,000+ arrested during peak (January 8-12). -- Source: NPR (B1), Britannica (B2), Iran Human Rights (B2)

Iran's Response

• Supreme Leader Khamenei (February 1, 2026): Warned any US attack would cause "a regional war." Accused US of seeking to seize Iran's oil and gas. -- Source: Al Jazeera (A1), NPR (B1)
• FM Araghchi: Stated Iran's "brave Armed Forces are prepared -- with their fingers on the trigger -- to immediately and powerfully respond to ANY aggression." -- Source: Araghchi's X post (A1), ABC News (B1)
• Iran pursuing dual-track strategy: Military deterrence + intensive diplomacy. Araghchi held consultations with Gulf state counterparts and visited Turkey. Ali Larijani (Secretary, Supreme National Security Council) visited Moscow. -- Source: INSS (B2), Special Eurasia (B2)
• Proxy activation: Iran instructed Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and Houthis to publicly align. Kataib Hezbollah warned of "total war" if US attacks Iran (January 12, 16). Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba also backed Iran. Houthis threatened to resume Red Sea shipping attacks. IRGC-affiliated media outlined retaliation scenarios: missile/drone strikes on US facilities, maritime disruptions, proxy ground attacks. -- Source: FDD Long War Journal (B1), PBS (B1), Jerusalem Post (B2), MEMRI (B2)
• Houthi preparations: Houthis reportedly moving military resources (missiles, drones) in preparation for strikes on US targets if Iran is attacked. -- Source: Military.com (B2), Middle East Monitor (B2)
• IRGC-affiliated media (January 26-February 3): Published threats against military bases housing US forces in Jordan, Iraq, Bahrain, and UAE. -- Source: MEMRI (B2)

Regional Partner Reactions

• Israel: CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper visited Israel January 25 for meetings with IDF Chief of Staff LTG Eyal Zamir. Discussed boosting defense cooperation. Israel assessing Houthi retaliation threat if US strikes Iran. Israel preparing for possible Houthi missile/drone attacks. -- Source: Times of Israel (B1), IDF official X account (A1), Jerusalem Post (B2)
• UAE: Ministry of Foreign Affairs formally reaffirmed "commitment to not allowing its airspace, territory, or waters to be used in any hostile military actions against Iran, and to not providing any logistical support." Called for dialogue and de-escalation. (January 26) -- Source: UAE MOFA official statement (A1), The National (B1)
• Saudi Arabia: Called for peaceful, diplomatic resolution. Along with other Gulf states, reportedly informed US they would not allow American aircraft to take off from their territory to strike Iran. However, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain have reportedly increased intelligence sharing and regional airspace coordination with CENTCOM. -- Source: Multiple sources (B2)
• Turkey: President Erdogan (February 4) offered to mediate; proposed trilateral video conference with Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian. Rejected military action against Iran. Turkey supplies ~15% of its gas from Iran (pipeline agreement expires mid-2026). A trilateral meeting occurred in Istanbul involving Turkish and Iranian foreign ministers. -- Source: Anadolu Agency (A1), TRT World (B1)
• Oman: Serving as primary mediator for US-Iran nuclear talks. Hosted February 6 indirect talks through FM Sayyid Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi as intermediary. -- Source: Multiple (A1)
• Arab leaders broadly: At least 9 Arab leaders lobbied the White House to resume talks after brief cancellation. -- Source: Axios (B2)

Historical Comparison

• Scale: This represents one of the most significant US military buildups in the Middle East in recent years, second only to the force posture preceding the June 2025 strikes (Operation Midnight Hammer). -- Source: Al Jazeera (B1)
• June 2025 operation used 4,000 personnel, 125+ aircraft, 7 B-2s, and at least 1 submarine. Current buildup includes 1 carrier strike group, 12+ F-15Es, B-52s, additional THAAD/Patriot batteries, and multiple destroyers/LCS. -- Source: Al Jazeera comparison (B1)
• Troop levels: US troop numbers in the region rose from ~34,000 to nearly 50,000 by late 2024 (following Oct 7 buildup), a level not seen since the first Trump term. Current numbers are likely at or above that level. -- Source: Responsible Statecraft (B2), CFR (B1)
• 2019 comparison: The 2019 Iran tensions (tanker attacks, drone downing) involved deployment of USS Abraham Lincoln CSG, additional Patriot battery, B-52 bombers, and ~1,500 additional troops. Current buildup is more extensive, with layered missile defense and stronger air component. -- Source: Background knowledge, cross-referenced with current reporting

REPORTED/CLAIMED (B3-C3)

• Kushner assembling Iranian-American business leaders to advise on "transitional entity" for potential regime collapse in Iran. Meetings reportedly planned in Palm Beach. -- Source: The National (C3)
• Military strike on Iran "virtually certain" according to unnamed Western source. -- Source: Iran International (C3)
• Trump considering range of options: From broad military campaign aimed at toppling Iran's regime, to blockading Iran's shadow oil fleet, to Special Operations raids on nuclear/missile sites. -- Source: Chatham House (B3), Soufan Center (B3)
• IRGC nuclear weapons breakout timeline: Western/Israeli officials found "few signs" Iran has made "significant progress" rebuilding enrichment capability since June 2025 strikes. Missile program, however, largely rebuilt. -- Source: NYT satellite imagery analysis (B2), FDD (B3)
• Six B-2s reportedly deployed to Diego Garcia during earlier 2025 operations; current status at that base is unclear based on January 2026 satellite imagery showing reduced presence. -- Source: The War Zone (B3), satellite imagery (C3)

UNCONFIRMED/RUMORS (D4-E5)

• Iran may be rebuilding nuclear facilities deeper underground to reduce vulnerability to bunker-buster weapons. -- Source: Washington Institute analysis (C4), NOTE: Inferential assessment based on observed construction patterns
• Direct Witkoff-Araghchi face-to-face meeting during "indirect" Oman talks -- reported by Axios but not officially confirmed by either side. -- Source: Axios (C4), NOTE: Contradicts the officially stated indirect format
• Iran considering preemptive attack on US forces. Some Israeli assessments cited "growing concerns" about this possibility. -- Source: Times of Israel (D4), NOTE: May reflect Israeli threat inflation rather than genuine intelligence
• USS Carl Vinson ordered to CENTCOM per Pentagon spokesman statement, but unclear if it has arrived. One source (X/Global_Mil_Info) indicates USS Nimitz and USS Carl Vinson CSGs both in CENTCOM, but this may refer to different time periods. -- Source: Pentagon (B3), social media (D4)

KEY ACTORS IDENTIFIED

United States

• President Donald Trump: Decision-maker; oscillating between military threats and diplomatic engagement
• SecDef Pete Hegseth: Managing force posture; publicly stating military preparedness
• Sean Parnell: Pentagon Chief Spokesman; communicating force posture changes
• Steve Witkoff: Special Envoy; leading US delegation at Oman talks
• Jared Kushner: Senior Adviser; co-leading Oman talks; potentially organizing Iran transition planning
• Admiral Brad Cooper: CENTCOM Commander; coordinating with Israel and participating in Oman talks (unprecedented)

Iran

• Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei: Ultimate decision authority; warning of regional war
• FM Abbas Araghchi: Lead negotiator; managing dual diplomatic-deterrent posture
• Ali Larijani: Secretary, Supreme National Security Council; dispatched to Moscow
• IRGC Navy: Conducting provocative operations (drone, tanker harassment, tanker seizures)

Regional

• PM Benjamin Netanyahu (Israel): Coordinating with US; briefed by Witkoff pre-talks
• LTG Eyal Zamir (Israel): IDF Chief of Staff; hosted Cooper
• President Erdogan (Turkey): Offering mediation; opposing military action
• Sayyid Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi (Oman): FM serving as intermediary in nuclear talks
• UAE leadership: Formally refusing to allow territory/airspace for operations against Iran

Proxy/Non-State

• Kataib Hezbollah (Iraq): Threatening "total war" if Iran attacked
• Houthis (Yemen): Threatening Red Sea attacks; moving military assets
• Hezbollah (Lebanon): Issuing vague threats of activation

CRITICAL INFORMATION GAPS

• Exact US troop numbers in CENTCOM AOR as of February 2026 -- not publicly stated
• Current status of B-2 bombers at Diego Garcia -- satellite imagery inconclusive for late January 2026
• Whether USS Carl Vinson has arrived in CENTCOM AOR or is still transiting
• Content of Witkoff-Netanyahu coordination meeting -- substance of agreed positions unknown
• Iran's actual nuclear reconstitution progress -- competing assessments (IAEA vs. Pentagon vs. Israeli AEC) not reconciled
• What nine Arab leaders communicated to the White House to resume talks -- specifics unknown
• Kushner "transition planning" for Iran -- scope and seriousness unclear
• Whether Trump has received or is reviewing specific military strike plans -- only generalized reporting
• Russia's role -- Larijani visited Moscow; outcomes unknown
• China's position -- minimal reporting on Chinese response to the buildup
• Specific deployments to Saudi Arabia and Qatar -- THAAD/Patriot locations confirmed generally but not by specific base
• Status of Houthi ceasefire -- whether Red Sea shipping has resumed normal flow
• Iran's submarine and anti-ship missile dispositions -- no current OSINT available
• Whether US has pre-positioned munitions (MOPs, Tomahawks) beyond what is carrier-embarked

COLLECTION NOTES

Source Environment Assessment

• High information volume: This crisis is generating extensive open-source reporting from multiple tiers of sources. Coverage is comprehensive from Western wire services, quality press, and regional outlets.
• Competing narratives present: US/Israeli sources emphasize Iran's nuclear threat and justify buildup as deterrence. Iranian sources frame the buildup as aggression and emphasize willingness to negotiate. Gulf state sources emphasize desire for diplomacy and distance from military operations.
• Potential information operations detected: (1) Iran International report claiming strike is "virtually certain" may reflect Israeli intelligence influence operations to pressure Iran at talks. (2) Kushner "transition planning" reports may be deliberate leaks to maximize pressure on Tehran. (3) IRGC media threats against specific bases may be calibrated deterrence signaling rather than operational planning.
• Key bias to note: Western reporting tends to frame the buildup as defensive/deterrent; regional press (especially Turkish, Qatari outlets) frames it as potentially provocative. Iranian state media presents a defiant posture while diplomatic track suggests greater flexibility.
• Temporal sensitivity: The situation is highly dynamic. The February 6 Oman talks and February 6-7 sanctions/tariff actions occurred within the last 24-48 hours. Assessment should be treated as a snapshot.
• Caveat: All assessments are based on open-source analysis without field verification.