INTELLIGENCE DASHBOARD
Full Assessments
IRAN'S TRAJECTORY: Gaza 2.0, North Korea 2.0, or Something Else?
Neither Gaza 2.0 nor North Korea 2.0. Something worse than both and harder to name.
OSINTINTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT: Ahmad Naghibzadeh's Predictions — Two Months Later
The world that existed when we last assessed Naghibzadeh's predictions on February 10 no longer exists. On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes on Iran (Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion), killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, 40+ senior military a
OSINTSTRATEGIC ASSESSMENT: Iran From Tehran's Perspective
The Islamic Republic of Iran faces the most severe existential crisis in its 47-year history. The assassination of Supreme Leader Khamenei, the decimation of senior leadership, the destruction of the nuclear program, economic freefall, and massive domestic opposition create a convergence of pressure
OSINTWHERE IS THIS WAR HEADING?
The US and Israel have launched a war they can win tactically but not strategically. They possess overwhelming air superiority and have already achieved significant military degradation of Iran — killing the Supreme Leader and 40+ officials, destroying naval assets, and striking nuclear/missile infr
OSINTASSESSMENT: Iran's Political-Economic Dynamics 2026
The Islamic Republic of Iran in February 2026 is a regime that has survived the most severe convergence of pressures in its 47-year history -- military defeat, leadership decapitation, economic collapse, mass protests, proxy network degradation, and succession crisis -- through the raw application o
OSINTINTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT: Netanyahu's Washington Trip and US-Iran Nuclear Negotiation Strategy
Netanyahu's urgent Washington trip on February 11, 2026 -- moved up by one week after the first round of US-Iran talks in Oman -- was almost certainly a calibrated effort to set impossible conditions for US-Iran nuclear negotiations. His core demands (zero enrichment, stockpile surrender, missile di
OSINTASSESSMENT: US-Iran Nuclear Brinkmanship — Diplomatic Track, Military Preparations, and the 90-Day Trajectory
The Trump administration is likely pursuing genuine coercive diplomacy with Iran, but the available evidence does not reliably distinguish this from sophisticated box-checking before a second round of strikes. A narrow zone of possible agreement exists around enrichment caps, 60% uranium disposition
OSINTINTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT: Ahmad Naghibzadeh's Predictions — One Month Later
Ahmad Naghibzadeh's January 8, 2026 interview demonstrated strong structural analysis but unreliable forecasting. His diagnosis of the Islamic Republic's pathologies — economic extraction by IRGC "mafia networks," the Supreme Leader as irreplaceable "hook," opposition fragmentation, and the impossib
OSINTASSESSMENT: June 2025 Pre-War Signals vs. February 2026 — Escalation and Negotiation Patterns
February 2026 likely represents a shift from the June 2025 covert dual-track (negotiations-as-cover for planned strikes) toward overt coercive diplomacy where military threats are wielded openly as negotiating leverage. However, this assessment carries only medium confidence because a learning adver
OSINTINTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT: CENTCOM Military Buildup — Kinetic Action or Coercive Diplomacy?
The CENTCOM military buildup is most likely a coercive diplomacy campaign designed to extract maximum Iranian concessions at the negotiating table, with genuine preparation for limited strikes if diplomacy fails. The force posture is calibrated for armed compellence with strike optionality — suffici
OSINTAssessment: Iran-U.S. First Round Negotiations (February 6, 2026)
The February 6, 2026, indirect talks in Muscat, Oman -- the first U.S.-Iran diplomatic engagement since the June 2025 Twelve-Day War -- represent a fragile opening driven more by mutual fear of escalation than genuine commitment to a comprehensive deal. Iran enters from its weakest position since 19
OSINTINTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT: Will Israel Attack Iran in the Near Term?
Some form of Israeli or US-Israeli military action against Iran is more likely than not in 2026, but NOT imminent. The probability of a major overt strike is assessed at 35-55% (post-red-team adjustment), with the most likely window being April-July 2026 — after diplomacy has time to demonstrate fai
Flash Traffic
EXECUTIVE BRIEF: Graham's Apparent Shift on Iran Deal
Graham's statement is less of a genuine reversal than it appears. It is best understood as a tactical repositioning to stay aligned with Trump's diplomatic turn, while simultaneously establishing Congress as a gatekeeper that can impose conditions Iran is almost certain to reject. Graham has effecti
OSINTBRIEF: Did Anyone Credibly Predict the June 13, 2025 Strikes on Iran?
No major think tank, OSINT practitioner, or Western intelligence analyst publicly predicted the specific timing of the June 13, 2025 strikes. The US-Israeli deception campaign — involving planted stories of bilateral tensions, fake diplomatic scheduling, and personal misdirection — achieved comprehe
OSINTINTELLIGENCE COLLECTION: Pre-War Prediction Track Record -- June 13, 2025 US/Israeli Strikes on Iran
Every analysis on this site is generated by an AI-powered intelligence system using structured analytical methodology — multi-source collection, competing hypotheses, eight parallel domain specialists, and adversarial red-teaming before any conclusion is published.
Read the full methodology →Request an Analysis
Suggest a topic you'd like analyzed — feel free to include a link to an article or post. Submissions are reviewed and the most relevant ones are queued for the analysis pipeline.
Sign in to submit an analysis request.