INTEL VIEWERMethodology
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Hypotheses

Hypotheses

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Challenge

Red Team Summary

Synthesis

ASSESSMENT

SOURCE INVENTORY: Iran-Israel-US Conflict -- Tehran's Strategic Perspective

Collection Date: 2026-03-03 Collector: intelligence-collector


OFFICIAL SOURCES (Rating A)

US Government

  • US Department of Defense -- Operation Epic Fury
  • US State Department -- Iran Sanctions
  • US State Department -- Completion of UN Sanctions Snapback
  • OFAC -- Iran Sanctions Programs
  • US Treasury -- Iran-backed Militia Designations
  • USNI News -- Operation Epic Fury Casualties
  • USNI News -- Yemen and Red Sea Security Report to Congress
  • White House -- Iran Nuclear Facilities Statement

Chinese Government

  • Chinese MFA -- Spokesperson Press Conference 2 March 2026
  • Global Times -- China condemns killing of Khamenei
  • Xinhua -- Iran unveils underground missile base

International Organizations

  • IAEA -- Iran Verification Report May 2025 (GOV/2025/24)
  • IAEA -- Iran Verification Report September 2025 (GOV/2025/50)
  • EU Council -- Iran Sanctions Snapback
  • UN Press -- Security Council on Iran Strikes
  • UN News -- Guterres on Iran Strikes
  • OHCHR -- Woman Life Freedom Protests
  • OHCHR -- Human Rights Council Resolution on Iran
  • IMF -- Islamic Republic of Iran
  • World Bank -- Iran MPO

Iranian Official (State Media / Government)

  • Death confirmation via Supreme National Security Council and IRNA/IRIB (referenced in multiple sources)
  • IRGC statement on Operation True Promise 4 (referenced in multiple sources)

WIRE SERVICES (Rating B)

  • Reuters (multiple articles on strikes, retaliation, Gulf impact)
  • Associated Press (multiple articles on casualties, diplomatic reactions)
  • AFP (conflict coverage)
  • Anadolu Agency -- Iran Military Power Factbox
  • Anadolu Agency -- Supreme Leader Candidates

QUALITY PRESS (Rating B-C)

International

  • Washington Post -- Iran Succession
  • Washington Post -- Trump Regime Change
  • Washington Post -- Strait of Hormuz
  • Washington Post -- What's New About Protests
  • [New York Times -- Khamenei's Three Nominated Successors](referenced in Wikipedia/sourced articles)
  • CNN -- Iran Regime Change Analysis
  • CNN -- Who's Running Iran
  • CNN -- Hezbollah Analysis
  • CNBC -- Iran-China-Russia
  • CNBC -- Strait of Hormuz Oil
  • CNBC -- Khamenei Death
  • CBS News -- Operation Epic Fury Updates
  • NPR -- Hezbollah Strikes
  • NPR -- World Leaders Reaction
  • NPR -- Iran Protest Death Toll
  • NBC News -- Iran War Live Updates
  • Bloomberg -- Gulf States Iran Criticism
  • Bloomberg -- Strait of Hormuz Explained
  • Bloomberg -- China Calls for Ceasefire
  • The Hill -- Iran Interim Leadership
  • The Hill -- Trump-Iran Talks
  • The Hill -- US Casualties Rise
  • Military Times -- Casualties
  • TIME -- Succession
  • Newsweek -- Alireza Arafi
  • Fortune -- IRGC Economic Empire
  • Fortune -- Iran Women Protests
  • Christian Science Monitor -- Regime Change
  • Axios -- Iran Retaliation Regional
  • The Intercept -- Regime Adjustment

Regional Press

  • Al Jazeera -- Iran Military Strategy
  • Al Jazeera -- Iran Weapons
  • Al Jazeera -- Death Toll Tracker
  • Al Jazeera -- Hezbollah on Khamenei
  • Al Jazeera -- Strait of Hormuz
  • Al Jazeera -- Succession Explainer
  • Al Jazeera -- Interim Council
  • Al Jazeera -- Muscat Talks
  • Al Jazeera -- Iran Opposition Groups
  • Al Jazeera -- Gulf States Targeted
  • Al Monitor -- Iran Interim Leaders
  • The National -- Erbil Attack
  • The National -- Succession Process
  • Middle East Eye -- Iran Economy
  • Arab News -- Houthi Operations
  • Alhurra -- Gulf Strikes
  • Iran International -- Impeachment Threats
  • Iran International -- Political Erosion
  • Times of Israel -- Khamenei Succession
  • PBS News -- Supreme Leader Contenders

THINK TANKS / SPECIALIST (Rating B-C)

  • CFR -- Impact of US-Israeli Strikes
  • CFR -- Iran Leadership Transition
  • CFR -- Iran More Dangerous After Assad
  • CSIS -- Operation Epic Fury and Nuclear Program
  • CSIS -- CRINK Security Ties
  • Brookings -- After the Strike
  • Brookings -- PMF Turning Iraq Into Iranian Client State
  • Stimson Center -- Khamenei's Eclipse
  • Stimson Center -- Expert Reactions to Epic Fury
  • Hudson Institute -- Trump's Iran Trap
  • Hudson Institute -- Iran Missile Programs
  • Carnegie -- Russia-Iran Military Support
  • Carnegie -- Gulf Countries and Iran Conflict
  • Atlantic Council -- Gulf After Iran War
  • Atlantic Council -- Regional Impact
  • Chatham House -- China Long Game on Iran
  • RUSI -- Pezeshkian Paradox
  • Clingendael -- Military-Bonyad Complex
  • Clingendael -- Iran's Strategic Predicament
  • MEI -- One Year of Pezeshkian
  • MEI -- Iran-China Economic Cooperation
  • Washington Institute -- Iran's Failing Eastward Pivot
  • RAND -- Protests Q&A
  • INSS -- Iran-Saudi Relations
  • INSS -- Turkey-Iran
  • Soufan Center -- Middle East 2026 Forecast
  • Soufan Center -- Iran and Assad Collapse
  • FPRI -- Renewed Conflict in Iran
  • New Lines Institute -- Regime Change Analysis
  • Middle East Council on Global Affairs -- Saudi-Iranian Detente
  • FDD -- Gulf States Condemn Iran
  • FDD -- Turkey Backs Tehran
  • FDD -- China-Iran Security Cooperation
  • FDD -- IRGC Deputy Chief
  • Alma Center -- Hezbollah Status January 2026
  • Alma Center -- Iran Race to Rebuild
  • AEI -- Artesh vs IRGC
  • Geopolitical Futures -- IRGC-Artesh Power-Sharing
  • ISIS Online -- Nuclear Facility Assessment
  • Arms Control Association -- Iran Nuclear Facilities
  • Arms Control Association -- IAEA Resolution
  • Kpler -- Strait of Hormuz Market Analysis

REFERENCE / ENCYCLOPEDIC SOURCES

  • Wikipedia -- 2026 Iran Conflict
  • Wikipedia -- 2026 Israeli-US Strikes on Iran
  • Wikipedia -- 2026 Iranian Leadership Crisis
  • Wikipedia -- 2026 Supreme Leader Election
  • Wikipedia -- 2025-2026 Iranian Protests
  • Wikipedia -- 2026 Iran Massacres
  • Wikipedia -- 2025-2026 Iran-US Negotiations
  • Wikipedia -- 2025 US Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Sites
  • Wikipedia -- 2026 Strait of Hormuz Crisis
  • Wikipedia -- 2026 Hezbollah-Israel Strikes
  • Wikipedia -- 2026 Iranian Diaspora Protests
  • Britannica -- US-Israel-Iran Conflict
  • Britannica -- 2026 Iranian Protests

HUMAN RIGHTS ORGANIZATIONS

  • Amnesty International -- Iran Massacre of Protesters
  • Amnesty International -- What Happened at Protests
  • Human Rights Watch -- Countrywide Massacres

PARLIAMENTARY/GOVERNMENT RESEARCH

  • UK House of Commons Library -- US-Israel Strikes Feb/Mar 2026
  • UK House of Commons Library -- Iran Challenges 2026
  • UK House of Commons Library -- Iran Protests 2026 Response
  • UK House of Commons Library -- E3 Snapback
  • UK House of Commons Library -- Hezbollah Disarmament
  • UK House of Commons Library -- Iran Nuclear Programme and Military Action 2025
  • Congressional Research Service -- Iran Sanctions
  • Congressional Research Service -- Iran Nuclear and UN Sanctions

DEFENSE / MILITARY SPECIALIST

  • Defense Security Monitor -- Iran Missile Resupply
  • Army Recognition -- Verba Deal
  • UNITED24 Media -- Russian Weapons to Iran
  • Iran War Updates -- Military Comparison
  • Iran War Updates -- Proxy Network
  • The War Zone -- S-300 Systems
  • Janes -- IRGC Financial Empire
  • SpecialEurasia -- Russia-China-Iran Tech
  • Defcon Level -- Iran Strikes Fifth Fleet

OPPOSITION / DIASPORA SOURCES (Use with caution -- editorial bias)

  • Iran International -- Saudi-funded; critical of Iranian regime; useful for domestic politics but biased
  • NCRI/MEK -- Exiled opposition; strong bias; claims should be cross-referenced
  • IranWire -- Independent journalism; generally reliable on domestic matters
  • Geopolitical Economy Report -- Left-leaning; critical of US sanctions policy
  • FIU News -- Reza Pahlavi
  • FPIF -- The Pahlavi Mirage

ANALYTICAL / OPINION

  • Modern Diplomacy -- China's Strategic Playbook
  • Modern Diplomacy -- China Securing Alliance
  • Modern Diplomacy -- US-Iran International Law
  • Modern Diplomacy -- Turkey Opportunity and Trap
  • Foreign Policy -- Iran's Proxies Out for Themselves
  • Global Security Review -- Snapback Sanctions
  • Tandfonline -- Iran's Proxy War Paradox

SOURCE QUALITY NOTES

  1. Most reliable for confirmed facts: CENTCOM/DoD statements, IAEA reports, UN records, major wire services
  2. Useful but potentially biased: Israeli military sources (may overstate success); Iranian state media (may understate damage); opposition media (may inflate regime weakness)
  3. Critical gap: Very limited independent reporting from inside Iran due to conflict conditions and communications disruption
  4. Wikipedia articles: Used as aggregation points; original sources cited within those articles were cross-referenced where possible
  5. Prediction markets (Polymarket): Included for information but not reliable for analytical purposes
  6. Diaspora rally figures: Likely inflated; no independent verification of attendance numbers

Intelligence Notes

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