Indicators & Warnings Framework: Iran Trajectory

Date: March 5, 2026 (Day 6)

TIER 1: DECISION-FORCING INDICATORS (Next 7-10 Days)

These indicators could force strategic decisions by one or more parties within days.

#	Indicator	Current Status	If Triggered
1	Patriot battery reports "winchester" (empty)	Qatar: ~4 days; UAE: ~7 days	Gulf states demand withdrawal or ceasefire; operational crisis
2	Houthi military activation	NOT TRIGGERED — rhetoric only	Combined Hormuz + Red Sea = 30% global trade; economic crisis forces ceasefire pressure
3	Oil breaches $100/barrel	$82-85, trending up	Consuming-nation political threshold; SPR releases accelerate
4	US military casualties reach 15+ KIA	Currently 6 KIA	Republican Congressional support erodes; public opinion shifts
5	Submarine attack on US/coalition vessel	20+ Ghadir deployed, zero attacks	Most significant naval engagement since Falklands; massive escalation

TIER 2: TRAJECTORY INDICATORS (Next 2-4 Weeks)

Toward H1: NK 2.0 / Garrison State Consolidation

Mojtaba Khamenei formally announced as Supreme Leader
IRGC issues unified statement endorsing new SL
Ceasefire negotiations initiated through Oman/Turkey
Trump language shifts from "regime change" to "deal" or "mission accomplished"
China signals continued oil purchases
Iran declares True Promise 4 "complete" (signals pause willingness)
Artesh publicly defers to IRGC command authority
Iranian missile launch rate stabilizes at harassment level (confirming conservation, not collapse)

Toward H2: Gaza 2.0 / Protracted Destruction

Trump maintains "regime change" objective past Day 21
No mediation framework announced by Day 14
US relocates operations from Gulf to carrier/Diego Garcia (enables longer campaign)
Hegseth rhetoric unchanged ("accelerating")
No ceasefire signals from either side by Week 4
Bombardment shifts to systematic infrastructure destruction (power, water, roads)

Toward H3: Nuclear Breakout

IAEA reports anomalous activity at known or unknown facilities
Iran announces NPT withdrawal
Seismic indicators consistent with underground nuclear test
Iran issues statement referencing "all necessary measures for self-defense"
Intelligence reports of HEU movement or enrichment activity
Iran declares nuclear capability without testing (quiet fait accompli)

Toward H4: Libya / Fragmentation

First confirmed IRGC unit defection or stand-down
Kurdish forces establish territorial control in western provinces
Artesh units refuse IRGC commands or act independently
Provincial governors declare autonomous authority
IRGC unable to distribute food/fuel in major cities
Competing armed groups emerge
Rial breaches 5M/$ (hyperinflation)
Reports of IRGC salary payment failures

Toward H6: Frozen Conflict / Ceasefire

Both sides' attack rates decline to token levels
Oman FM travels to Tehran or Washington
Hormuz partial reopening (signals deal component)
Trump declares "mission accomplished" or equivalent
Iran frames survival as victory
Gulf states publicly call for ceasefire

TIER 3: ECONOMIC COLLAPSE TIMELINE

Indicator	Threshold	Significance	Current Status
Rial exchange rate	>2M/$	Market expects prolonged crisis	1.5-1.75M/$
	>3M/$	Hyperinflation beginning	Not reached
	>5M/$	Economic system failure	Not reached
IRGC salary payments	Delayed >2 weeks	Coercive apparatus eroding	No reports
	Delayed >1 month	Defection threshold approaching	Not reached
Oil exports	Zero >30 days	Regime fiscal reserves depleted	Day 6 at ~zero
	Zero >60 days	Bonyad reserves stressed	Not reached
Food prices	>200% spike	Social fabric breaking	Trending up
Bank operations	Closures >1 week	Financial system failing	Partially operating

TIER 4: DEFECTION CASCADE MONITORING

Phase	Signal	Status
Phase 0: Quiet non-compliance	Posts abandoned, orders ignored	POSSIBLE but unverifiable at 4% internet
Phase 1: Individual desertions	Junior personnel fleeing	LIKELY occurring at margins (Artesh 14% pre-war)
Phase 2: Unit-level stand-down	Entire units cease operations	NOT OBSERVED (but unverifiable)
Phase 3: Commander defections	Senior officers switch sides	NOT OBSERVED
Phase 4: Cascading collapse	Mass defection tipping point	NOT OBSERVED

CRITICAL CAVEAT: At 4% internet connectivity, Phases 0-2 may be occurring without any open-source visibility. The team cannot distinguish between "cohesion is holding" and "we cannot see that it isn't."

NUCLEAR MATERIAL STATUS — PRIORITY COLLECTION

Requirement	Source Type	Status
Location of 400+ kg 60% HEU	Technical (IAEA)	BLIND since July 2025
Enrichment activity at known facilities	Satellite/technical	Natanz entrance buildings destroyed; subsurface unknown
Undeclared facility activity	All source	NO REPORTING
Weaponization engineering progress	Human/signals	NO REPORTING
Delivery system readiness	Technical/satellite	Khorramshahr-4 status unknown

This is the most dangerous intelligence gap in the assessment. If nuclear breakout has occurred or is occurring, the entire framework is invalidated.

CROSS-CUTTING: CHINA'S BEHAVIOR AS BAROMETER

Signal	Meaning
Resumed oil purchases	Betting on regime survival; NK 2.0 viable
Increased citizen evacuation	Betting on prolonged instability
Wang Yi visits Tehran	Active mediation; regime survival path
Chinese companies exit Iran	Writing off the relationship
China presses Iran on Hormuz reopening	Self-interested; not indicator of Iranian trajectory
UNSC veto on Iran resolution	Minimal commitment; diplomatic cover only