SOURCE INVENTORY: Operation Epic Fury / Roaring Lion — Days 5-6 Collection

Compiled: March 5, 2026

SOURCE SUMMARY

DETAILED SOURCE LIST

Official Sources — US/Coalition (Reliability: A)

1. US CENTCOM / Pentagon Press Conferences

   • Hegseth press conference March 4
   • Gen. Dan Caine briefings
   • Adm. Brad Cooper operational updates
   • Key data: 2,000+ targets hit, 6 KIA, 10 seriously wounded, IRIS Dena sinking
   • CBS News - Hegseth "just getting started"
   • Al Jazeera - Hegseth more forces arriving

2. White House

   • Trump statements on war duration, regime change, rejection of Iran backchannel
   • White House - Operation Epic Fury
   • White House - "Obliterating Iranian Terror Regime"

3. IDF / Israeli Government

   • Netanyahu confirming Israeli pilots over Tehran
   • IDF sortie counts, target data, Hezbollah strike numbers
   • Alma Center - Daily Report March 4

4. NATO

   • Spokesperson Allison Hart on missile interception over Turkey
   • Al Jazeera - NATO destroys missile

Official Sources — Iranian (Reliability: A-B, context-dependent)

5. Fars News Agency (IRGC-affiliated)

   • IRGC commander promising "more intense and widespread" attacks
   • Reliability: A for confirming Iranian intent; propaganda framing expected

6. ISNA (Iran Students News Agency)

   • Reported IRGC personnel casualties and command-control disruption
   • Cited by Iran International; unusually candid reporting
   • Reliability: B2

7. Iranian Foreign Ministry

   • Acknowledged military lost control over several units
   • Reliability: B2 (significant admission)

Official Sources — Regional/Other (Reliability: A-B)

8. UAE Government — Interceptor data (814/871 projectiles destroyed)
9. Qatar Defence Ministry — Air defense engagement data
10. Azerbaijan / President Aliyev — Nakhchivan drone strike confirmation
    • RFE/RL - Aliyev calls strike "act of terror"
11. Oman FM Badr al-Busaidi — Mediation calls
    • Al Jazeera - Oman "off ramps available"
12. Turkish Government — Missile incident denial, mediation engagement
13. French Government — Base access, carrier deployment

Wire Services (Reliability: B)

14. Associated Press — Houthi resumption signals, general conflict reporting
15. Reuters — Economic data, shipping disruption
16. AFP — European military deployments

Quality Western Press (Reliability: B)

17. Washington Post — Lebanon evacuations, Mojtaba Khamenei profile, live updates
    • WaPo - March 5 live updates
    • WaPo - Shifting war rationales
18. CNN — Day 5-6 live coverage, backchannel reporting
    • CNN - Day 5 live
    • CNN - Iran sends word to US
19. NPR — Congressional vote coverage, economic impact, oil/gas prices
    • NPR - Senate war powers vote
    • NPR - Gas prices jump, stocks plunge
20. CNBC — Senate vote, oil markets, Hormuz insurance crisis
    • CNBC - War powers vote fails
    • CNBC - Supertanker rates all-time high
21. CBS News — Pentagon briefings, casualty identification
    • CBS - Hegseth torpedo briefing
22. PBS — War powers analysis
    • PBS - Johnson on war powers
23. Axios — Netanyahu-White House backchannel concern
    • Axios - Netanyahu asks about secret talks

Quality Regional Press (Reliability: B)

24. Al Jazeera — Comprehensive live tracking, casualty data, regional perspective
    • Al Jazeera - Day 5 what we know
    • Al Jazeera - Death toll tracker
    • Al Jazeera - Hormuz shutdown
    • Al Jazeera - Trump's endgame
25. Times of Israel — Russia/China/Turkey ceasefire call
    • Times of Israel - Joint ceasefire call
26. The National (UAE) — Shipping/insurance analysis
27. Middle East Eye — US "stonewalling" Gulf interceptor requests
    • MEE - US stonewalling Gulf states
28. Jerusalem Post — Iran CIA backchannel report
    • JPost - Iran reached out to CIA

Specialist / Think Tank Sources (Reliability: B-C)

29. Alma Research and Education Center (Israel) — Best granular military data
    • Alma - Daily Report March 4
    • NOTE: Israeli perspective, but highly detailed operational data
30. FDD Long War Journal — Proxy tracking (Iraq, Houthis, Hezbollah)
    • LWJ - Iraqi Shiite militias
    • LWJ - Houthis express solidarity but no attacks
31. Critical Threats (AEI) — Iran military analysis
    • Critical Threats - March 4 evening report
32. Stimson Center — Expert reactions, Houthi analysis
    • Stimson - Houthis must decide
33. Chatham House — Iran internet shutdown analysis
34. Arms Control Association — Nuclear program status
    • ACA - Trump strikes amid nuclear talks
35. IAEA — Natanz damage confirmation; monitoring blindness
    • Al Jazeera - IAEA confirms Natanz damage

Defense Specialty Press (Reliability: B-C)

36. Defence Security Asia — Interceptor depletion analysis
    • DSA - Gulf air defence near collapse
    • DSA - Iran decoy swarm vs US missile shield
37. Defense One — US missile defense rebuild needs
    • Defense One - US built missile defenses
38. Breaking Defense — GCC nightmare scenario
    • Breaking Defense - Iran attacks GCC
39. Asia Times — China watching US missile stocks drain
    • Asia Times - China watching

Human Rights / Civil Society (Reliability: B-C)

40. Hengaw (Kurdish Human Rights Organization)
    • Only source with detailed civilian/military casualty breakdown from inside Iran
    • Hengaw - Day 6 report: 2,400 killed
    • NOTE: Kurdish-based, credible but focused on Kurdish regions; may undercount in other areas
41. HRANA (Human Rights Activists News Agency)
    • Pre-war protest casualty data
    • NOTE: US-based, opposition-aligned

Economic / Financial Data (Reliability: A)

42. Bloomberg — Oil prices, VLCC rates, Hormuz crisis, succession reporting
    • Bloomberg - Assembly of Experts nears naming successor
43. LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group) — Freight rate data
44. Morgan Stanley — Iran conflict inflation analysis
45. Kpler — Oil flow tracking
    • Kpler - Hormuz crisis reshapes oil markets
46. Insurance Journal — War risk insurance cancellations
    • Insurance Journal - Insurers cancel cover

Opposition / Exile Media (Reliability: C — use with caution)

47. Iran International — IRGC pressure on Assembly of Experts; Mojtaba Khamenei reporting
    • NOTE: Saudi-funded, anti-regime. Good intelligence access but editorial bias. Cross-reference always.
48. NCRI (National Council of Resistance of Iran) — Domestic conditions reporting
    • NOTE: MEK-affiliated opposition. Use only for corroboration.

OSINT / Technical Monitoring (Reliability: B)

49. NetBlocks — Iran internet connectivity at 4% of normal
    • Reliability: A1 for technical monitoring data

SOURCES NOT ACCESSED (GAPS)

• IRNA (Islamic Republic News Agency) — Iran's official wire service; difficult to access due to blackout
• Tasnim News Agency — IRGC-affiliated; limited access
• IISS (International Institute for Strategic Studies) — No specific Day 5-6 product found
• Crisis Group — No specific Day 5-6 product found
• Xinhua — Chinese official perspective limited in English-language results
• TASS — Russian official perspective limited in search results
• South China Morning Post — Not surfaced in searches
• Foreign Affairs — No rapid-response product yet
• War on the Rocks — No specific Day 5-6 analysis found
• Classified/intelligence community sources — Not available to open-source collection

RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT NOTES

1. Best operational data: Alma Center (Israel) + CENTCOM provide complementary but Israel/US-biased operational picture
2. Best casualty data: Hengaw provides only granular breakdown; Al Jazeera tracker more conservative but methodology clearer
3. Biggest blind spot: Inside Iran. With 4% internet connectivity, ground truth is essentially unavailable. We are relying on state media, exile opposition, and satellite imagery interpretation.
4. Interceptor crisis: Defence specialty press is the primary source. Mainstream media underreporting. Middle East Eye's claim of US "stonewalling" Gulf resupply is single-sourced and should be treated as C3.
5. Nuclear status: IAEA confirmation of monitoring blindness is the most authoritative and concerning data point. Everything else on nuclear status is inference.