Intelligence Collection: Iran-U.S. First Round Negotiations
Date: 2026-02-07 | Classification: OPEN SOURCE
CONFIRMED FACTS (High Confidence)
Venue and Format
- Talks held in Muscat, Oman on February 6, 2026
- Originally planned for Istanbul; Iran requested venue change; U.S. initially rejected, then accepted after lobbying by ~9 regional governments
- Officially indirect: Omani FM al-Busaidi shuttled between delegations
- Axios reports direct Witkoff-Kushner-Araghchi face-to-face meeting also occurred
- Duration: ~8 hours (10:00 AM - 6:00 PM local)
Participants
- U.S.: Steve Witkoff (Special Envoy, lead), Jared Kushner, ADM Brad Cooper (CENTCOM Commander, in dress whites)
- Iran: FM Abbas Araghchi (lead), several deputies
- Mediator: Omani FM Badr bin Hamad al-Busaidi
Topics
- Iran: "focused exclusively on the nuclear issue"
- U.S. originally demanded broader agenda (missiles, proxies, human rights); reportedly dropped this demand
Official Statements
- Araghchi: "A positive and good start" / "Mistrust is a serious challenge" / Demands "calm atmosphere without threats"
- Trump: "Very good" / "They want to make a deal... consequences are very steep"
- Omani FM: "Useful" and "very serious"
Simultaneous U.S. Actions
- Sanctions on 14 oil vessels, 15 entities, 2 individuals (announced moments after talks)
- EO enabling 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran (process established, not applied)
REPORTED (Medium Confidence)
- Mediators from Qatar/Turkey/Egypt presented framework proposal (Al Jazeera)
- U.S. dropped demand for broader agenda after Arab lobbying (Haaretz)
- Contradictory: Iran agreed to include missiles/proxies (Israel Hayom/NYT)
UNCONFIRMED (Low Confidence)
- Netanyahu warned Witkoff Iran wants to "kill time"
- Iran's primary motivation is averting strikes, not genuine resolution
- Regional source says ayatollahs "may eventually give up nuclear program"
TIMELINE
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Jun 13-24, 2025 | Twelve-Day War (Israel/U.S. vs Iran) |
| Jun 22, 2025 | U.S. Operation Midnight Hammer strikes Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Mass Iranian protests erupt |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Omani FM visits Tehran |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Iran-Russia-China trilateral charter signed |
| Jan 29, 2026 | EU designates IRGC as terrorist organization |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Pezeshkian orders team to open fresh talks |
| Feb 3, 2026 | F-35 shoots down Iranian drone near USS Lincoln; IRGC harasses U.S. tanker |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Venue dispute; talks nearly collapse; Arab lobbying saves them |
| Feb 4-5, 2026 | Iran deploys Khorramshahr-4 missile at IRGC underground base |
| Feb 5, 2026 | U.S.: "Leave Iran now" advisory |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Talks in Muscat (~8 hours) |
| Feb 6, 2026 | U.S. announces new sanctions; Trump signs Iran tariff EO |
| Feb 7, 2026 | IRGC Javani: "No intention of giving up military power" |
CRITICAL INFORMATION GAPS
- Specific proposals exchanged during direct meeting
- Khamenei's actual mandate to Araghchi
- Location of 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium
- Israel's deadline (if any) for unilateral action
- Russia/China positions (absent from reporting)
- Status of covert nuclear reconstitution
SOURCES
40+ sources consulted across official statements, wire services, quality press, regional media, and think tanks. Full source list in 00-SUMMARY.md.