INDICATORS AND WARNINGS: Iran Trajectory Monitoring
Date: 2026-02-22 Review Period: Check monthly
CRITICAL INDICATORS (Check Weekly)
1. Security Force Cohesion
| Indicator | Status | Implication if Triggered |
|---|---|---|
| Confirmed unit defection or command refusal | NOT TRIGGERED | Regime-threatening; shifts to H5 |
| IRGC officer publicly criticizing regime | NOT TRIGGERED | Early fracture signal |
| Basij desertion rate increase | UNKNOWN (no data) | Erosion of first-line repression |
| Reports of IRGC-Artesh tensions | POSSIBLE (Mousavi cross-appointment) | Institutional competition |
2. Nuclear Escalation
| Indicator | Status | Implication if Triggered |
|---|---|---|
| Enrichment to 90% weapons-grade | NOT CONFIRMED | Collapses diplomacy; strike ~certain |
| High-explosive testing at Parchin | CONSTRUCTION DETECTED (blast chamber) | Weaponization decision made |
| IAEA access restored | NOT TRIGGERED | Deal possible; de-escalation |
| Nuclear device assembly detected | NOT CONFIRMED | Immediate military crisis |
3. Economic Collapse Threshold
| Indicator | Status | Implication if Triggered |
|---|---|---|
| Rial exceeds 2,000,000/dollar | APPROACHING (currently 1,642,000) | Hyperinflation territory |
| Chinese oil imports decline >20% | 7% decline observed | Revenue crisis accelerates |
| Government unable to pay security forces | NOT TRIGGERED | Security force cohesion risk |
| Mass food riots (distinct from political protest) | DECEMBER 2025 PROTESTS HAD ECONOMIC TRIGGER | Recurring trigger |
IMPORTANT INDICATORS (Check Monthly)
4. Succession
| Indicator | Status | Implication if Triggered |
|---|---|---|
| Khamenei verified public appearance | NONE SINCE JUNE 2025 | Continued absence = declining health |
| Assembly of Experts emergency session | NOT TRIGGERED | Succession imminent |
| Mojtaba Khamenei public political activity | LOW PROFILE | Covert positioning |
| Named successor gaining institutional support | LARIJANI most visible | Factional competition |
5. Diplomatic
| Indicator | Status | Implication if Triggered |
|---|---|---|
| Oman talks produce signed framework | NOT YET | Deal track viable |
| Talks suspended/canceled | NOT YET | Military escalation risk rises |
| Iran delivers "detailed proposals" | EXPECTED EARLY MARCH | Seriousness test |
| Third-round venue announced | PENDING | Capital-level = new phase |
6. Protest Dynamics
| Indicator | Status | Implication if Triggered |
|---|---|---|
| Renewed mass protests | NOT CURRENTLY | Reset of regime-society confrontation |
| Organized (vs. spontaneous) protests | NOT OBSERVED | Opposition maturation |
| Ethnic/peripheral province unrest | ONGOING LOW-LEVEL | Geographic spread of instability |
| Student movement coordination | WALKOUTS REPORTED | Generational mobilization |
WILD CARD INDICATORS
| Indicator | Probability | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Khamenei death or incapacitation | 25-40% within 12 months | Triggers succession; changes everything |
| Israeli follow-up strike | 40-50% within 12 months | Resets military dynamics |
| US-China deal that includes Iran oil | 10-15% | Economic catastrophe for Iran |
| Iran nuclear test | 10-20% within 18 months | Global crisis; immediate military response |
| IRGC internal coup/factional takeover | 5-10% within 12 months | Unpredictable regime transformation |
MONITORING PRIORITIES (Ranked)
- Enrichment levels — Any move to 90% is the single most consequential indicator
- Khamenei health/appearances — Succession trigger
- Chinese oil purchase volumes — Economic lifeline status
- IRGC appointment progress — Institutional recovery metric
- Oman talks developments — Diplomatic track viability
- Rial exchange rate — Daily barometer of regime economic viability
- Security force behavior during any future confrontation
- Protest patterns — Frequency, geographic spread, organizational sophistication